A spatially explicit and mechanistic model for exploring coral reef dynamics

Abstract

21The complexity of coral-reef ecosystems makes it challenging to predict their dynamics 22 and resilience under future disturbance regimes. Models for coral-reef dynamics do not 23 adequately accounts for the high functional diversity exhibited by corals. Models that are 24 ecologically and mechanistically detailed are therefore required to simulate the ecological 25 processes driving coral reef dynamics. Here we describe a novel model that includes 26 processes at different spatial scales, and the contribution of species' functional diversity 27 to benthic-community dynamics. We calibrated and validated the model to reproduce 28 observed dynamics using empirical data from Caribbean reefs. The model exhibits 29 realistic community dynamics, and individual population dynamics are ecologically 30 plausible. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of larvae produced 31 locally, and interaction-induced reductions in growth rate are the parameters with the 32 largest influence on community dynamics. The model provides a platform for virtual 33 experiments to explore diversity-functioning relationships in coral reefs. 34 35

Combining agent-based, trait-based and demographic approaches to model coral-community dynamics

“…All the R scripts related to a functional trait and trait_data_compilation.R inside Traits_and_imputation/Rscripts ( Carturan et al, 2020 ).…”

“…Traits_and_imputation/Rscripts/phylogeny_coral.R and phylogeny_coral_and_functional_traits.R ( Carturan et al, 2020 ).…”

“…coralreef2/src/coralreef2/CoralReef2 Builder.java and ContextCoralReef2.java ( Carturan et al, 2020 ).…”

“…Disturbance_larvalConnectivity.java, Disturbance_priority.java, Sand_cover.java ( Carturan et al, 2020 ).…”

“…In the main text, we present a streamlined description, and use the Appendices for details regarding: (1) traits and imputation of missing data (Appendix 1), (2) the Overview, Design concepts and Details protocol (Appendices 2 and 4), (3) calibration with empirical data (Appendix 3), (4) hierarchically structured validation (Appendix 5), and (5) global sensitivity analysis (Appendix 6). For complete transparency and reproducibility, the model, the R scripts and instructions are available on the Open Science Framework (OSF) ( Carturan et al, 2020 ).…”