A spatially distributed hydroeconomic model to assess the effects of drought on land use, farm profits, and agricultural employment

Maneta, Marco P.; Torres, Marcelo; Wallender, W. W.; Vosti, Stephen A.; Howitt, Richard E.; Rodrigues, Lineu Neiva; Bassoi, L. H.; Panday, Sorab

doi:10.1029/2008wr007534

Cited by 78 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(56 reference statements)

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“…Moreover, hydro-economic models allow capturing the effects of the interactions between the hydrologic and the economic systems, ensuring that the optimal economic results take into account the spatial distribution of water resources. The spatial location of water users, such as irrigation districts and households with respect to the river stream determines largely the magnitude of the impacts of any allocation decision and policy intervention to cope with water scarcity (Harou et al, 2009;Maneta et al, 2009).…”

Section: Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Kahil¹,

Dinar

Albiac³

2015

Journal of Hydrology

173

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s u m m a r yGrowing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

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Section: Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Kahil¹,

Dinar

Albiac³

2015

Journal of Hydrology

173

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“…As described in Mainuddin et al (2007) and Maneta et al (2009), the economic and hydrologic models are subsequently run so that the output data from one of the models is entered as input data into the other model. The economic model determines the optimal cropping pattern that maximizes farmers' expected utility.…”

Section: Modeling Integrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This situation could mitígate the reduction in tomato acreage predicted by the model. studies (DóU, 2002;Fischer et al, 2007;Maneta et al, 2009), water demand for irrigation will rise in a warmer climate depending on the type of crop and geographical location. Overall, our results point out that, under dry conditions, irrigation requirements increase moderately for cereals and vegetables (between 4% and 10% with respect to an average normal year) and substantially for perennial crops (between 13% and 25%).…”

Section: Bau Scenario: Following Current Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Ferrer

Varela‐Ortega

Purkey

2013

Journal of Environmental Management

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Keywords:Water management Sustainable irrigation Hydro-economic modeling Policy analysis Semi-arid regions Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid áreas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusión of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological área with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of mínimum environmental ñows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indícate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental ñow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conñicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-ñow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing mínimum stream ñows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute to balance competing water demands in the basin and to increase economic water productivity, but might not be sufficient to ensure the provisión of environmental ñows as required by the WFD. A thoroughly revisión of the basin's water use concession system for irrigation seems to be needed in order to bring the GRBMP in Une with the WFD objectives. Furthermore, the study illustrates that social, economic, institutional, and technological factors, in addition to bio-physical conditions, are important issues to be considered for designing and developing water management strategies. The research initiative presented in this paper demonstrates that hydro-economic models can explicitly intégrate all these issues, constituting a valuable tool that could assist policy makers for implementing sustainable irrigation policies.

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“…기후변화, 지하수 이용, 토지이용변화는 수문현상 에 변동성을 초래하는 대표적인 요소들이다 (Ferguson et al, 2012;Li et al, 2013;Mehta et al, 2013) Gao et al, 2009;Maneta et al, 2009;De et al, 2011).…”

Section: 서론unclassified

Estimation and assessment of baseflow at an ungauged watershed according to landuse change

Lee¹,

Shin²,

Park³

et al. 2014

Journal of Wetlands Research

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Baseflow gives a significant contribution to stream function in the regions where climatic characteristics are seasonally distinct. In this regard, variable baseflow can make it difficult to maintain a stable water supply, as well as causing disruption to the stream ecosystem. Changes in land use can affect both the direct flow and baseflow of a stream, and consequently, most other components of the hydrologic cycle. Baseflow estimation depends on the observed streamflow in gauge watersheds, but accurate predictions of streamflow through modeling can be useful in determining baseflow data for ungauged watersheds. Accordingly, the objectives of this study are to 1) improve predictions of SWAT by applying the alpha factor estimated using RECESS for calibration; 2) estimate baseflow in an ungauged watershed using the WHAT system; and 3) evaluate the effects of changes in land use on baseflow characteristics. These objectives were implemented in the Gapcheon watershed, as an ungauged watershed in South Korea. The results show that the alpha factor estimated using RECESS in SWAT calibration improves the prediction for streamflow, and, in particular, recessions in the baseflow. Also, the changes in land use in the Gapcheon watershed leads to no significant difference in annual baseflow between comparable periods, regardless of precipitation, but does lead to differences in the seasonal characteristics observed for the temporal distribution of baseflow. Therefore, the Guem River, into which the stream from the Gapcheon watershed flows, requires strategic seasonal variability predictions of baseflow due to changes in land use within the region.

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A spatially distributed hydroeconomic model to assess the effects of drought on land use, farm profits, and agricultural employment

Cited by 78 publications

References 47 publications

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach

Estimation and assessment of baseflow at an ungauged watershed according to landuse change

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