Aiming at the problem of vegetable replenishment and pricing strategy in fresh merchant supermarket, this paper makes a replenishment plan based on categories by analyzing the distribution law and interrelationship of vegetable categories and individual product sales. and the total daily replenishment and pricing strategy in the coming week are obtained by using the time series prediction model, so as to maximize the profit. The research methods include data preprocessing, sales law analysis, interrelation analysis, linear regression model, time series prediction model and optimization model. The results show that mastering the distribution law and interrelationship of the sales volume of various categories and individual products of vegetables, and using the time series prediction model and optimization model to formulate the total replenishment and pricing strategy can maximize the profit.