A Spatial Model of Internal Displacement and Forced Migration

Echevarria-Coco, Jon; Gardeazábal, Javier

doi:10.1177/0022002720958470

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The rapid escalation of combat in Ukraine generated a surge of displacement, thereby causing a backlog of individuals attempting to flee the country. However, prior models of forcible displacement do not consider individuals transitioning from being internally displaced to refugees ( 14 – 20 ). By accounting for this transition in our model, we more accurately identify the origin locations of the forcibly displaced population to improve temporal understanding of the spatial distribution of IDPs and refugees.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion

Pandey

Wells

Stadnytskyi³

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has displaced more than a quarter of the population. Assessing disease burdens among displaced people is instrumental in informing global public health and humanitarian aid efforts. We estimated the disease burden in Ukrainians displaced both within Ukraine and to other countries by combining a spatiotemporal model of forcible displacement with age- and gender-specific estimates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, cancer, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in each of Ukraine’s 629 raions (i.e., districts). Among displaced Ukrainians as of May 13, we estimated that more than 2.63 million have CVDs, at least 615,000 have diabetes, and over 98,500 have cancer. In addition, more than 86,000 forcibly displaced individuals are living with HIV, and approximately 13,500 have TB. We estimated that the disease prevalence among refugees was lower than the national disease prevalence before the invasion. Accounting for internal displacement and healthcare facilities impacted by the conflict, we estimated that the number of people per hospital has increased by more than two-fold in some areas. As regional healthcare systems come under increasing strain, these estimates can inform the allocation of critical resources under shifting disease burdens.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous modeling frameworks ( 14 – 20 ) have analyzed forced migration integrating factors such as population density, socioeconomic characteristics, and intensity of conflict in other locations. Nevertheless, the application of these frameworks to post-Soviet states has not occurred.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion

Pandey

Wells

Stadnytskyi³

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…According to displacement models (e.g., Renaud, Dun, Warner, & Bogardi, 2011;Marchiori, Maystadt, & Schumacher, 2012;Echevarria-Coco & Gardeazabal, 2021), extreme (weather) shocks may induce a reconfiguration of the spatial distribution of the population that has consequences on resource allocation and social balance (Henderson, 2003;Brülhart & Sbergami, 2009). In extreme cases and often in rural Africa, as more water points run dry, members of different households converge at the few remaining water points in large numbers and in some cases breach community boundaries, which increases the likelihood of social conflict even more (Berger, 2003;McCarthy, Dutilly-Diane, & Drabo, 2004;Chen, 2015).…”

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?

Chigusiwa

Kembo²,

Kairiza

2022

Review Development Economics

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Climate change–induced extreme weather events such as drought have occurred with increasing frequency and intensity in Zimbabwe over the past 30 years bringing about pressure on communally owned water resources. Using the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee 2020 survey of rural households in Zimbabwe, this study assesses the impact of drought shock on the occurrence of water point violence. The impact of self‐reported drought shock on the likelihood of occurrence of social conflict in the form of water point violence is subject to confounding due to selection bias. Using the doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment to account for confounding, we investigate gender dimensions of the impact of drought on inducing water point violence in rural Zimbabwe. The study offers three major findings. First, drought shock is associated with increased household propensity to experience water point violence. Second, the severity of the drought shock impact increases the probability of the household experiencing water point violence. Third, drought shock–induced water point violence is only statistically valid for households where the water‐fetcher is a woman or girl. The results suggest that the impact of drought shocks on water point violence is gendered and disadvantages women and girls more than men and boys.

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“…Beyond socioeconomic and political implications of armed conflict, several core demographic, normative, and cultural effects have been detected. A common denominator of most conflicts, especially those that generate high casualty figures, is widespread forced migration (154)(155)(156)(157). Individuals' motivations for mobility are inherently complex and hard to separate into distinct drivers, but direct threat of physical harm and indirect effects of conflict that work via loss of livelihood and, occasionally, increased vulnerability to environmental hazards, are common explanations.…”

Section: Other Generic Impacts Of Armed Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change

Buhaug

Uexküll

2021

Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.

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Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: ( a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, ( b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and ( c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 46 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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A Spatial Model of Internal Displacement and Forced Migration

Cited by 8 publications

References 70 publications

Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion

Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion

Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?

Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change

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