A spatial-explicit price impact analysis of increased biofuel production on forest feedstock markets: A scenario analysis for Sweden

Abstract

The present paper introduces an integrated spatially explicit framework for assessing price impact on forestry markets in Sweden. The framework is based on the "soft-link" of a price determination model, the SpPDM model with the BeWhere Sweden model. The aim is to analyse the impacts of increased forest-based biofuel production for transportation within the Swedish context by 2030. To that effect, we develop scenarios analyses based on the simulations of successive biofuel production targets, under different assumptions concerning the competition intensity for forest biomass and the use of industrial by-products. The results suggest marginal impacts on the prices of forest biomass. The average across spatial-explicit prices varies from 0% to 2.8% across feedstocks and scenario types. However, the distribution of the spatial-explicit price impacts displays large variation, with price impacts reaching as high as 8.5%. We find that the pattern of spatial distribution of price impacts follows relatively well the spatial distribution of demand pressure. However, locations with the highest price impacts show a tendency of mismatch with the locations of the highest demand pressure (e.g. sawlogs). This is a counterintuitive conclusion compared to results from nonspatial economic models. The spatial-explicit structure of the framework developed, and its refined scale allows such results to be reported. Hence, from a policy-making perspective, careful analysis should be devoted to the locational linkages for forestry markets of increased biofuel production in Sweden.

Bioenergy versus forest conservation: a partial equilibrium analysis of the Swedish forest raw materials market

“…Local price changes will instead smooth out through intra-regional trade, and it does not matter where within a region the price increase occurred. 4 A spatial-explicit price model, such as Ouraich et al (2018), could in principle be used to determine local price impacts from reduced harvest in specific areas in Sweden. However, that kind of model does not include domestic trade, the forest industry market, or the bioenergy sector, which would leave out important information regarding the two policies' impact on the forest raw material market.…”

Upgrading the Strategy of Multistage Torrefaction Liquid by the Selective Oxidation Reaction Route Using a Reusable MgO-Based Au/Al2O3 Catalyst

“…Unfortunately, the pyrolysis liquid essentially contains a high level of multicomplex reactive molecules and other corrosive organic acids, which significantly affects the stability of the final bio-oil composition . Hence, it is very challenging to upgrade the resultant bio-oil liquid into transportation fuel components by the conventional catalytic route. − Nevertheless, the direct utility of bio-oil as the transportation fuel is highly limited due to the existence of an excess content of light oxygenate (<C 6 ) fractions in the mixture. − …”

Bioenergy production and utilization in different sectors in Sweden: A state of the art review

“…There are several studies on Swedish bioenergy production focused on raw materials including energy crops (Nordborg et al 2018a, b), agricultural residues (Waldenström et al 2016;Bentsen et al 2018), forest biomass (Bryngemark 2019), stump harvesting (Persson and Egnell 2018), and marine biomass (Hackl et al 2018;Wollak et al 2018). Some studies have addressed certain developments in the bioenergy sectors concerning district heating (Amiri and Weinberger 2018;Sernhed et al 2018;Brinkley 2018), biofuels for transport (Ouraich et al 2018;Mutter 2019), energy policies (Börjesson et al 2015;Hansen and Berlina 2018), and climate impacts of bioenergy production and consumption (Ortiz et al 2016;Hammar et al 2019;Schmidt et al 2019). One of the major considerations in forest biomass utilization is the increasing demand for bioenergy, and this is expected to result in conflict with other economic interests.…”