A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use

Verburg, Peter H.; Koning, G.H.J. de; Kok, Kasper; Veldkamp, A.; Bouma, J.

doi:10.1016/s0304-3800(98)00156-2

Cited by 344 publications

(202 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…We adapted the coupling procedure from earlier studies (Moreira et al 2008;Verburg et al 1999). Rather than passing the total amount of land use from one model to the other, we coupled the amount of change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Land-use models describe the interplay between different driving factors within land systems Verburg et al 1999). They are often used to explore dynamics and envision plausible paths along which future land-use distribution could unfold, presented in the form of land-use scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This could occur, for example, if the network of protected areas were expanded or other restrictions on deforestation were implemented. Verburg et al (1999) provided a spatially explicit modeling approach for Ecuador, coupling two spatial scales of analysis that both covered the entire country. The authors modeled the spatial linkages of the land-use changes between 9 9 9 and 35 9 35 km 2 grids, including top-down and bottom-up linkages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

et al. 2017

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Local, regional, and global processes affect deforestation and land-use changes in the Brazilian Amazon. Characteristics are: direct conversions from forest to pasture; regional processes of indirect land-use change, described by the conversion of pastures to cropland, which increases the demand for pastures elsewhere; and teleconnections, fueled by the global demands for soybeans as animal fodder. We modeled land-use changes for two scenarios Trend and Sustainable Development for a hot spot of land-use change along the BR-163 highway in Mato Grosso and Pará, Brazil. We investigated the differences between a coupled modeling approach, which incorporates indirect land-use change processes, and a noncoupled landuse model. We coupled the regional-scale LandSHIFT model, defined for Mato Grosso and Pará, with a subregional model, alucR, covering a selected corridor along the BR-163. The results indicated distinct land-use scenario outcomes from the coupled modeling approach and the subregional model quantification. We found the highest deforestation estimates returned from the subregional quantification of the Trend scenario. This originated from the strong local dynamics of past deforestation and landuse changes. Land-use changes exceeded the demands estimated at regional scale. We observed the lowest deforestation estimates at the subregional quantification of the Sustainable Development story line. We highlight that model coupling increased the representation of scenario outcomes at fine resolution while providing consistency across scales. However, distinct local dynamics were explicitly captured at subregional scale. The scenario result pinpoints the importance of policies to aim at the cattle ranching sector, to increase land tenure registration and enforcement of environmental laws.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

et al. 2017

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“…First, it allows the analysis of LUCC by identifying the mechanisms that trigger land-use transitions and the driving forces supporting them, and also their impacts (Verburg et al, 1999). For instances, it is possible to verify if the former and/or current land-use planning policies foster sustainable urban growth by establishing an evaluation comparison between the observed land-use allocation with the restrictive regulations .…”

Section: Introduction: the Theory And The Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They make possible the identification of mitigating measures and actions within the plans, to know their regulatory or nonregulatory nature, and to measure the extent of their implementation. Third, LUCC models may support the development of future land-use plans (Verburg et al, 1999) by suggesting the incorporation of seismic risk mitigation policies.…”

Section: Introduction: the Theory And The Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban modelling for seismic prone areas: the case study of Vila Franca do Campo (Azores Archipelago, Portugal)

Martins

Cabral

Silva³

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Seismic risk mitigation comprises of land-use planning policies that enable risk reduction in areas exposed to earthquakes. Thus, the assessment of land-use plans regarding urban growth in seismic prone areas is very important. This article analyses the urban expansion of Vila Franca do Campo (island of S. Miguel, Azores, Portugal) from 1994 to 2005 based on ortophotomaps interpretations and simulates a scenario of urban growth for the year 2016 with a Land-use and Cover-Change (LUCC) model (Geomod). The goal is to evaluate the potential impact of land-use plans in managing urban growth and promoting seismic risk mitigation. Results indicate that the urban expansion, between 1994 and 2005, was done according to the Municipal Master Plan (MMP) restrictions. The scenario modelled for the year 2016 is potentially stricter for urban growth because it adds to the previous plan the constraints defined by the South Coast Management Plan (SCMP) that entered into force in 2007. In both time periods, a continuing urban growth towards seismic areas was identified. The absence of seismic risk mitigation policies and measures on both plans may contribute to increase the seismic hazard exposure and vulnerability. The results of this study strongly suggest the reformulation of future land-use plans to include seismic risk mitigation goals and policies.

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Regional Scenarios and Simulated Land‐Cover Changes in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

Fox

Vogler

Şen

et al. 2014

Vulnerability of Land Systems in Asia

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A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use

Cited by 344 publications

References 21 publications

Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

Urban modelling for seismic prone areas: the case study of Vila Franca do Campo (Azores Archipelago, Portugal)

Regional Scenarios and Simulated Land‐Cover Changes in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

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