A Socio-Hydrological Perspective on Recent and Future Precipitation Changes Over Tropical Montane Cloud Forests in the Andes

Sarmiento, Fausto O.; Kooperman, Gabriel J.

doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00324

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Conversely, a few decades might simply be too little time to detect distributional changes, especially for long-living, slow-growing organisms such as trees than can live for centuries. In fact, a common criticism of ecological niche modelling approaches is their underlying assumption that present distributions reflect the whole set of conditions in which a species can persist (Feeley & Silman, 2010a;Sax, Early & Bellemare, 2013), which is not necessarily true and needs to be accounted for. Some studies warn that relying exclusively on 'realised distributions' as input for predictive distributional studies could overly restrict potential future suitable habitats and overestimate risks of extinction and extirpation (Veloz et al, 2012;Sax et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, a common criticism of ecological niche modelling approaches is their underlying assumption that present distributions reflect the whole set of conditions in which a species can persist (Feeley & Silman, 2010a;Sax, Early & Bellemare, 2013), which is not necessarily true and needs to be accounted for. Some studies warn that relying exclusively on 'realised distributions' as input for predictive distributional studies could overly restrict potential future suitable habitats and overestimate risks of extinction and extirpation (Veloz et al, 2012;Sax et al, 2013). However, we argue that given the current rate of anthropogenic climate change, it is preferable to avoid overly optimistic assumptions that may lead to inaction, especially for montane ecosystems globally.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

et al. 2023

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In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

et al. 2023

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“…Although “high” potential habitat will increase in all climate change scenarios, “moderate” and “low” potential habitats, as well as overall suitability, will decrease. However, it should be considered that biogeographic simulations in climate change scenarios should be interpreted with caution, since they can overestimate the decline or increase, by not considering the qualities of the species to adapt in situ to new conditions, or persist outside of the conditions in which they have been observed [ 65 , 66 ]. It is unknown the adaptation of the socio-ecological system to future climate scenarios, particularly for those organisms intrinsically linked to forest health and seed dispersal [ 67 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Mori

Castillo

Guzmán

et al. 2020

Animals

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The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

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“…Exactly how and where they will be most affected is a critical outstanding question for predicting the future of Andean TMF. While some factors that contribute to a location's landslide susceptibility, such as slope steepness and lithology, are unchanged by warming temperatures (Guzzetti et al, 1999), climate change is projected to alter the timing, frequency, volume, and intensity of rainfall in the Andes (Urrutia and Vuille, 2009;Magrin et al, 2014;Eghdami and Barros, 2019;Sarmiento and Kooperman, 2019). It will also likely affect cloud regimes, which are highly complex due in part to the rugged topography of the Andes (Halladay et al, 2012a,b).…”

Section: Characterizing Factors Shaping Current Landslide Regimes In ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing a more complete understanding of tropical montane forest disturbance ecology through landslide research

Freund

Silman

2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Landslides are a central component of tropical montane forest disturbance regimes, including in the tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, one of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Technological developments in remote sensing have made landscape-scale landslide studies possible, unlocking new avenues for understanding montane biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the future effects of climate change. Here, we outline three axes of inquiry for future landslide ecology research in Andean tropical montane forest. We focus exclusively on the Andes due to the vast floral diversity and high endemicity of the tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, and its importance for global biodiversity and regional ecosystem service provisioning; the broad elevational, latitudinal, and topographic gradients across which landslide dynamics play out; and the existence of long-term plot networks that provide the necessary baseline data on mature forest structure, composition, and functioning to contextualize disturbance impacts. The three lines of study we outline, which draw heavily on remote sensing data and techniques, will deepen scientific understanding of tropical montane forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and the potential impacts of climate change on both. They are: (1) tracking landslide biodiversity dynamics across time and space with high spatial and temporal resolution satellite and unoccupied aerial vehicle imagery; (2) assessing the ecological influence of landslides through the lens of plant functional diversity with imaging spectroscopy; and (3) understanding current and predicting future landslide regimes at scale by building a living landslide inventory spanning the tropical Andes. The research findings from these three axes of inquiry will shed light on the role of landslides and the process of forest recovery from them in both the Andes and worldwide.

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A Socio-Hydrological Perspective on Recent and Future Precipitation Changes Over Tropical Montane Cloud Forests in the Andes

Cited by 13 publications

References 42 publications

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Developing a more complete understanding of tropical montane forest disturbance ecology through landslide research

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