A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

Abstract

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and crosscountry linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies and China's digital economy-driven countermeasures

“…The Global Projection Model (GPM) is a significant macroeconomic forecasting model developed by IMF economists in recent years. This paper primarily references works by Laxton et al . (2008), Carabenciov et al .…”

“…The Global Projection Model (GPM) is a significant macroeconomic forecasting model developed by IMF economists in recent years. This paper primarily references works by Laxton et al (2008), Carabenciov et al (2013) and Blagrave et al (2013) to construct a GPM model that encompasses the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China. Considering China is an emerging economy with behavior equations distinct from the G3 economies, we initially establish the behavior equations of the G3.…”

Analisis Pergeseran Tekanan Siklus Keuangan di Indonesia

“…Pergeseran gelombang siklus keuangan dengan frekuesi tekanan lebih berat mengakibatkan resiko pengelolaan keauangan menjadi sulit, proses stabilitas hanya dapat dicapai ketika hubungan supply dan demand money berada pada garis yang sama (Laxton et al, 2008). Keberadan hubungan ini terjadi ketika reaksi pasar bekerja tanpa tekanan ekonomi, baik secara internal maupun eksternal (Bible, 2015).…”

Globális válság, lokális likviditás? : A koronavírus-válság hatásának vizsgálata többországos DSGE-modell keretében likviditáskereslet alapján heterogén bankrendszerrel

“…Többországos DSGE-modelleket elsősorban nemzetközi intézmények használnak előrejelzéseikhez (Európai Bizottság, 2017;Carabenciov et al, 2008). Ez a tanulmány a nemzetközi tőkeáramlás és a bankközi piaci kapcsolatok -Poutineau és Vermandel [2014] által bemutatott -modelljére támaszkodik, amellyel a határokon átnyúló pénzügyi kapcsolatok makrogazdasági hatásait vizsgálták.…”