A sizing methodology based on Levelized Cost of Supplied and Lost Energy for off-grid rural electrification systems

Abstract

a b s t r a c tOff-grid renewable systems can play a pivotal role in the process of rural electrification, thus promoting local development. Moreover, scientific literature is increasingly addressing this issue through the concept of sustainability and appropriate technologies. With regards to this topic, we present a sizing methodology which better relates the results and the sizing process itself to the local context. Specifically, we address the research area of sizing methodologies for off-grid PV systems. Typically, the Loss of Load Probability (LLP) is a key parameter in these methodologies, but is difficult to set as regards the specific context. The proposed methodology employs the concept of Levelized Cost of Supplied and Lost Energy, it is based on the estimate of an economic Value of Lost Load, and eventually, the LLP results to be an output of the process. Therefore, the methodology uses only data characterizing the local situation and results better fit with population conditions. We also propose a simple approach to compute the Value of Lost Load and we apply the methodology for a rural area of Uganda. The results show that the methodology identifies a reliable system which supplies electricity with a fair cost while minimizing the energy bill of the consumers.

Rural electrification and capacity expansion with an integrated modeling approach

“…One of the key technological and economic challenges in rural electrification are matching generation capacities with electric load [31]. As such it has been widely covered in the rural electrification literature (see [19,[32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40] for a few examples).…”

“…LCOEs are calculated using the definition in [67]. The discount rate used is 6% [35] and the system's lifetime is considered to be 20 years (including any possible re-investments). As seen in Table 7, the LCOE for the diesel only expansion strategy is roughly 30% times higher than the cost-minimized expansion strategy.…”

Methodology for Sizing Hybrid Battery-Backed Power Generation Systems in Off-Grid Areas

“…In the last decade, several optimization techniques have been used to obtain an optimal solution of the sizing of HRES [7,[10][11][12][13]. The results among different approaches may vary depending on the characteristics of the model which permits to simulate the behavior of different elements of the system and also the economic and reliability model used as base on the optimization process.…”

Technical and Economic Assessment of a 450 W Autonomous Photovoltaic System with Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Storage

“…In [8], a case study in Uganda looked for an optimum sizing methodology that could be applied to design an off-grid rural electrification system. That methodology was based on a solar Photovoltaic (PV) system plus a battery energy storage system that had to take into account not only the technical specificities but also economic costs in the medium term.…”