A Simulation-Optimization Modeling Approach for Conjunctive Water Use Management in a Semi-Arid Region of Iran

Abstract

Agricultural months are the critical period for the allocation of surface water and groundwater resources due to the increased demands on water supplies and decreased recharge rate. This situation urges the necessity of using conjunctive water management to fulfill the entire water demand. Here, we proposed an approach for aquifer stabilization and meeting the maximum water demand based on the available surface and groundwater resources and their limitations. In this approach, we first used the MODFLOW model to simulate the groundwater level to control the optimal withdrawal and the resulting drop. We next used a whale optimization algorithm (WOA) to develop an optimized model for the planning of conjunctive use to minimize the monthly water shortage. In the final step, we incorporated the results of the optimized conjunctive model and the available field data into the least squares-support vector machine (LS-SVM) model to predict the amounts of water shortage for each month, particularly for the agricultural months. The results showed that during the period from 2005 to 2020, the most water shortage belonged to 2018, in which only about 52% of water demand was met with the contribution of groundwater (67%) and surface water (33%). However, the groundwater level could have increased by about 0.7 m during the study period by implementing the optimized model. The results of the third part revealed that LS-SVM could predict the water shortage with better performance with a root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Index of 5.70 m, 3.43%, and 0.89 m, respectively. The findings of this study will enable managers to predict the water shortage in future periods to make more informed decisions for water resource allocation.

Novel Ensemble Models Based on the Split‐Point Sampling and Node Attribute Subsampling Classifier for Groundwater Potential Mapping

“…Rainfall was the most significant factor affecting the groundwater potential. Groundwater potential depends on how much water is added to the aquifer, which is called groundwater recharge (Bien et al., 2023; Kayhomayoon, Ghordoyee‐Milan, et al., 2022; Kayhomayoon, Milan, et al., 2022). Rainfall is the primary source of groundwater recharge, as it provides water that can infiltrate into the soil and reach the aquifer.…”

“…In this situation, groundwater extraction provides a solution to the water shortage and enhances the water service quality, especially in dry and semi‐dry regions (Jiang et al., 2024; Kayhomayoon, Ghordoyee‐Milan, et al., 2022), because groundwater has more advantages than surface water in terms of quantity, quality, and availability (Bien et al., 2023; Kayhomayoon, Milan, et al., 2022). However, the excessive and unsustainable use of groundwater may cause many water crises, such as groundwater level decline (Kayhomayoon, Ghordoyee‐Milan, et al., 2022; Kayhomayoon, Milan, et al., 2022), groundwater salinization (Peters et al., 2022), water imbalance (Gupta & Sharma, 2023), and changes in groundwater dynamics and geochemical evolution (Li et al., 2023), and various environmental issues, such as land subsidence (Sahadevan & Pandey, 2023), and landslide and megathrust and shallow crustal earthquake (Orellana et al., 2022). Therefore, there is a global agreement on the need for sustainable groundwater management and utilization to decrease the impacts of overutilization (Kayhomayoon, Ghordoyee‐Milan, et al., 2022; Kayhomayoon, Milan, et al., 2022; Li et al., 2022).…”

“…However, the excessive and unsustainable use of groundwater may cause many water crises, such as groundwater level decline (Kayhomayoon, Ghordoyee‐Milan, et al., 2022; Kayhomayoon, Milan, et al., 2022), groundwater salinization (Peters et al., 2022), water imbalance (Gupta & Sharma, 2023), and changes in groundwater dynamics and geochemical evolution (Li et al., 2023), and various environmental issues, such as land subsidence (Sahadevan & Pandey, 2023), and landslide and megathrust and shallow crustal earthquake (Orellana et al., 2022). Therefore, there is a global agreement on the need for sustainable groundwater management and utilization to decrease the impacts of overutilization (Kayhomayoon, Ghordoyee‐Milan, et al., 2022; Kayhomayoon, Milan, et al., 2022; Li et al., 2022).…”

Concern Condition for Applying Optimization Techniques with Reservoir Simulation Model for Searching Optimal Rule Curves

“…Following the optimization process, the obtained rule curves were subjected to an assessment to evaluate the occurrences of water shortage and excess release. This assessment involved comparing characteristics such as frequency, magnitude, and duration of these situations with those exhibited by the optimal curves [84][85][86]. By comparing these relevant metrics, the performance and effectiveness of the obtained rule curves in addressing water shortage and excess release situations were evaluated.…”

An artificial intelligence-based model for optimal conjunctive operation of surface and groundwater resources

“…Although the nonlinear programming method decreased the operating cost, it extremely increased the computational time. Kayhomayoon et al 18 proposed an approach for the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. They used the MODFLOW and whale optimization algorithm to simulate the groundwater level and optimize the conjunctive use of water systems, respectively.…”