A simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Olivares, Lucio; Damiano, Emilia; Mercogliano, Paola; Picarelli, Luciano; Netti, Nadia; Schiano, Pasquale; Savastano, Vincenzo; Cotroneo, F.; Manzi, Maria Paola

doi:10.1007/s10346-013-0430-4

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…A wide area of Campania is mantled by unsaturated pyroclastic soils, which are stable even on steep slopes thanks to suction. However, experience shows that intense and prolonged precipitations can trigger landslides, which often turn into large and destructive flows [29,30]. A useful conclusion which may be drawn from such data is that, for effective confining stresses comparable to the average values which would be operative in the field after full saturation (i.e., for covers of 2-3 m of thickness and stresses up to 30-45 kPa), the threshold of the void ratio above which the undrained soil response is brittle is 1.55-1.65 ( Figure 9).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Undrained Behaviour of an Air-Fall Volcanic Ash

Picarelli

Olivares

Lampitiello³

et al. 2020

Geosciences

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Pyroclastic soils are widespread in the world. In particular, they cover a great part of Campania, a densely populated country of Southern Italy, where some distinct volcanic centers are present. In these soils, precipitations can trigger fast flow-like landslides causing destruction and loss of human lives. The movement style, the high velocity and the long run-out of these landslides are an indication of the occurrence, in the saturated soil mass, of mechanisms of undrained instability due to the inability of soil to sustain the deviator stress related to the slope condition. This paper reports the results of a wide experimental laboratory program carried out on a volcanic ash, which recently has been the seat of a killer landslide, stressing the factors that govern the undrained response of these materials.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Undrained Behaviour of an Air-Fall Volcanic Ash

Picarelli

Olivares

Lampitiello³

et al. 2020

Geosciences

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“…The reliability of an EWS strictly depends on adopting realistic hydrogeotechnical models (e.g., for unsaturated soils) that enable researchers to detect the right triggering thresholds and minimise the risk of false or late alarms [7,9]. Better evaluation of the value at risk will help reduce investment costs (e.g., lower insurance premiums and timely, appropriate safety measures).…”

Section: The Socioeconomic Value Of Early Warning Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In two hillslope areas about 30 km from Naples, the availability of experimental observations from the laboratory and in situ investigations [6][7][8] as well as from flume infiltration tests on small-scale slope models [9,10] allowed appropriate definition, calibration and validation of physically based models. The two pyroclastic deposits analysed were involved in the catastrophic flowslides of Sarno in 1998 and Cervinara in 1999.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geotechnical Properties of Two Pyroclastic Deposits Involved in Catastrophic Flowslides for Implementation in Early Warning Systems

Olivares

Damiano

Netti³

et al. 2018

Geosciences

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Air-fall pyroclastic deposits on steep slopes in Campania (Southern Italy) are periodically subjected to rainfall-induced landslides that may evolve into catastrophic flowslides. To protect built-up areas, early warning systems (EWSs) have been implemented which are essentially based on pluviometric thresholds or models unable to accurately monitor the physical phenomena responsible for flowslide generation in pyroclastic deposits. Over the last 20 years, landslides with no evolution in flows occurred in this area and the alarms generated by existing EWSs in the cases of rainfall were both false and highly costly, thus eroding public trust in EWSs. To improve existing EWSs, two complex models for pyroclastic soils (Cervinara and Sarno) are proposed in this paper. These two models allow correct simulation of the physical processes, such as saturation increase due to rainwater infiltration and mechanical degradation as far as undrained instability, which govern postfailure evolution. The paper concludes with the presentation of a framework proposal to be used in defining a soil database, as well as a framework for flowslide generation forecast to be used for implementation within EWSs.

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“…To this aim, physical modelling may play a key role, allowing investigation of the slope behavior under controlled conditions by means of a set of sensors which can follow the entire strain and pore pressure evolution.The paper reports some data which have been obtained by a couple of experiments on small-scale model slopes aimed at favoring the triggering of a progressive failure under the combined influence of buried slope morphology, which is characterized by a local change in the slope angle, inhomogeneous stress field due to a variable water content, and artificial rainfall. The slope monitoring has been performed with the support of both traditional transducers and distributed optical fibers, of which the use for structural and geotechnical monitoring is greatly increasing [11][12][13] and, of which, in perspective, may be used to support traditional early warning systems for landslides [14][15][16].…”

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confidence: 99%

An Experimental Investigation on the Progressive Failure of Unsaturated Granular Slopes

et al. 2019

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Slope failure is a complex process which depends on several factors concerning nature and properties of soil, slope morphology and structure, past stress history, groundwater regime, boundary conditions, and their changes. As a consequence, the mechanism of slope failure is typically characterized by the development of a highly non-uniform strain field, which does not allow an easy prediction of the failure conditions. Usually, the process which will bring the slope to final collapse starts with local soil failure, which then leads to formation and propagation of a shear zone, and finally to general slope failure. This mechanical process is called progressive failure. However, in spite of the progresses in the knowledge of the slope behavior, a complete framework about the progressive failure is still missing; in particular, information about the response of granular unsaturated sloping soils is very poor. This paper reports the results of a couple of small-scale experiments on slopes reconstituted with unsaturated pyroclastic soils and subjected to continuous rainfall. The use of miniaturized sensors and optical fibers provided useful data to read some aspects of the mechanics of failure.

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A simulation chain for early prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Cited by 13 publications

References 24 publications

The Undrained Behaviour of an Air-Fall Volcanic Ash

The Undrained Behaviour of an Air-Fall Volcanic Ash

Geotechnical Properties of Two Pyroclastic Deposits Involved in Catastrophic Flowslides for Implementation in Early Warning Systems

An Experimental Investigation on the Progressive Failure of Unsaturated Granular Slopes

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