A Simulation-based Analysis of the Influence of Renewables on the Spanish Electricity Prices

Abstract

Spain is at the forefront of renewable energy worldwide with a great integration level in its generation mix. This has put Spain in the situation that other countries that support renewable energy will be in a short-medium term. However active measures to support renewable energy have been losing strength in recent times seeking to reduce the deficit. On the one hand, the bonus for each technology is different and, on the other hand, their integration level in the mix, and thus its influence on the Pool, is uneven. This work aims to provide information and conclusions about the actual economic impact of each renewable technology on the pool and the electricity tariff for the Spanish case. For doing so, simulation and artificial intelligence techniques are applied in order to model the energy pool and simulate the electricity prices in five fictitious scenarios that suppress out of the generation mix, respectively, wind, photovoltaic, biomass, small hydraulic, and solar thermal. This way, based on the simulation, and ex-post analysis can be developed in order to obtain conclusions and knowledge, useful for other countries as well as for future decision making in the Spanish power system.