A simulated Northern Hemisphere terrestrial climate dataset for the past 60,000 years

Armstrong, E. M.; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Valdes, Paul J.

doi:10.1038/s41597-019-0277-1

Cited by 50 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 74 publications

(90 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The PPP ELA (Fig. 2) is determined using a high spatial resolution digital elevation model (DEM), so topography is more realistic than the smoothed landscapes used in numerical modeling experiments [and modern gridded climate (31)], generally resulting in PPP ELA values being larger than those produced by numerical models for the LGM (13) and YD (see Materials and Methods) (4,8,(32)(33)(34)(35). It is important to remember that the ELA thl , and accordingly the PPP ELA , is theoretical in areas where glaciers did not exist.…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the caveats noted above, climate model simulations providing total annual precipitation estimates for the YD are available [e.g., (4,8,(32)(33)(34)(35)] ( fig. S3), and it is of value to compare the patterns of palaeoprecipitation generated by numerical models and that generated from the palaeoglacier ELAs (PPP ELA ) ( varies between the climate models and is lower than PPP ELA (Fig.…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Younger Dryas

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Younger Dryas (YD) was a period of rapid climate cooling that occurred at the end of the last glaciation. Here, we present the first palaeoglacier-derived reconstruction of YD precipitation across Europe, determined from 122 reconstructed glaciers and proxy atmospheric temperatures. Positive precipitation anomalies (YD versus modern) are found along much of the western seaboard of Europe and across the Mediterranean. Negative precipitation anomalies occur over the Fennoscandian ice sheet, the North European Plain, and as far south as the Alps. This is consistent with a more southerly and zonal storm track, which is linked to a concomitant southern location of the Polar Frontal Jet Stream, generating cold air outbreaks and enhanced cyclogenesis, especially over the eastern Mediterranean. This atmospheric configuration resembles the modern Scandinavian (SCAND) circulation over Europe (a blocking high pressure over Scandinavia pushing storm tracks south and east), and by analogy, a seasonally varying palaeoprecipitation pattern is interpreted.

show abstract

Section: Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Younger Dryas

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Three main methods have been applied thus far to correct biases in climatological normals in the palaeocontext: the delta method (https://www.worldclim.org/data/ downscaling.html, last access: 11 August 2020, http://www. paleoclim.org/methods/, last access: 11 August 2020; Armstrong et al, 2019), statistical methods based on generalised additive models (GAMs) (Vrac et al, 2007;Levavasseur et al, 2011;Woillez et al, 2014;Latombe et al, 2018), and quantile mapping (Lorenz et al, 2016). The delta method assumes that biases are location-specific and constant over time; it uses a map of the local differences between observed and simulated values in the present day to correct biases in past simulations (Maraun and Widmann, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore an essential step towards realistic palaeoclimatologies, which are important for many applications such as modelling long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluate three widely used bias correction methods – the delta method, generalised additive models (GAMs), and quantile mapping – against a large global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the present, the mid-Holocene (∼ 6000 years BP), the Last Glacial Maximum (∼21 000 years BP), and the last interglacial period (∼125 000 years BP). In most cases, the differences between the bias reductions achieved by the three methods are small. Overall, the delta method performs slightly better, albeit not always to a statistically significant degree, at minimising the median absolute bias between empirical data and debiased simulations for both temperature and precipitation than GAMs and quantile mapping; however, there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in the performance of each of the three methods. Our data also indicate that it could soon be possible to use empirical reconstructions of past climatic conditions not only for the evaluation of bias correction methods but for fitting statistical relationships between empirical and simulated data through time that can inform more effective bias correction methods.

show abstract

“…Unravelling the mechanisms that have shaped ancient and current-day patterns of biodiversity requires spatially detailed and temporally consistent datasets of paleo climatic change 4 . While there is a growing library of high spatial and temporal resolution paleo climate datasets available to researchers [12][13][14] , issues relating to spatiotemporal coverage and continuity persist. Furthermore, a lack of paleo climate simulations harmonised (i.e., consistently spatially and temporally blended to) with independently derived future projections is preventing a wider integration of paleoarchives and paleo perspectives in model projections of future biodiversity change.…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Brown¹,

Wigley²,

Otto‐Bliesner³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening unique windows into past climate–biodiversity dynamics. These models can strengthen projections of the future state of biodiversity if applied to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change. StableClim provides harmonised continuous estimates of climate stability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the 21st Century for ocean and terrestrial realms, measured as the trend and variability in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends of annual, area-weighted regional- and global-mean temperature change allow periods in Earth’s history when climatic conditions were changing rapidly (and slowly) to be identified, permitting climate stability to be estimated locally during periods of accelerated warming and cooling. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Continuous estimates of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.

show abstract

A simulated Northern Hemisphere terrestrial climate dataset for the past 60,000 years

Cited by 50 publications

References 74 publications

Atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Younger Dryas

Atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Younger Dryas

An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About