A Simple SEIR Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission

Osman, Mojeeb AL-Rahman EL-Nor; Adu, Isaac Kwasi; Chen, Yang

doi:10.9734/arjom/2017/37471

Cited by 20 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…For the COVID-19, Bastian Prasse et al [10] designed a network-based model which is built by the cities and traffic flow to describe the epidemic in the Hubei province. At present, the SIS [11,12], SIR [13] and SEIR [14,15] models provide another way for the simulation of epidemics. Lots of research works have been reported.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics

2020

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In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 is built according to some general control strategies, such as hospital, quarantine and external input. Based on the data of Hubei province, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters of the system. We found that the parameters of the proposed SEIR model are different for different scenarios. Then, the model is employed to show the evolution of the epidemic in Hubei province, which shows that it can be used to forecast COVID-19 epidemic situation. Moreover, by introducing the seasonality and stochastic infection the parameters, nonlinear dynamics including chaos are found in the system. Finally, we discussed the control strategies of the COVID-19 based on the structure and parameters of the proposed model.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics

2020

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“…The main property of the compartmental model is the whole population is assigned to different compartments. The evolution of the compartment model started with SIR [ 27 , 29 ] model in which three basic compartments were introduced. S ( t ): The number of individuals who are susceptible to the disease, i.e., who are not (yet) infected on day t .…”

Section: Models Used For Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the most common models used in the literature is SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model [34] [40]. It is a mathematical data modelling technique based on SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model, which is used for forecasting the spread of an epidemic [41], [42]. The SEIR model is diagrammatically represented in Figure 1.…”

Section: Seir and Seird Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of COVID-19 Trend in India and Its Four Worst-Affected States Using Modified SEIRD and LSTM Models

et al. 2021

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Since the beginning of COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019), the Indian government implemented several policies and restrictions to curtail its spread. The timely decisions taken by the government helped in decelerating the spread of COVID-19 to a large extent. Despite these decisions, the pandemic continues to spread. Future predictions about the spread can be helpful for future policy-making, i.e., to plan and control the COVID-19 spread. Further, it is observed throughout the world that asymptomatic corona cases play a major role in the spread of the disease. This motivated us to include such cases for accurate trend prediction. India was chosen for the study as the population and population density is very high for India, resulting in the spread of the disease at high speed. In this paper, the modified SEIRD (susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered–deceased) model is proposed for predicting the trend and peak of COVID-19 in India and its four worst-affected states. The modified SEIRD model is based on the SEIRD model, which also uses an asymptomatic exposed population that is asymptomatic but infectious for the predictions. Further, a deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) model is also used for trend prediction in this paper. Predictions of LSTM are compared with the predictions obtained from the proposed modified SEIRD model for the next 30 days. The epidemiological data up to 6th September 2020 have been used for carrying out predictions in this paper. Different lockdowns imposed by the Indian government have also been used in modeling and analyzing the proposed modified SEIRD model.

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“…How to build a proper epidemiological model for these epidemics is a challenging task. At present, in epidemiology, the population risk of infection can be divided into four subclasses, S (susceptible), E (exposed), I (infected), and R (recovered), according to the different health statuses of the population [5]. Depending on the above population division, the model can be divided into four categories, SI [6] , SIS [7], SIR [8], and SEIR [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SEIR-Based Model for India COVID-19 Prediction

Tao¹,

Ye²,

Zhang³

et al. 2022

HSET

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Up to August 19, 2021, there have been 207,784,507 confirmed cases and 4,370,424 confirmed deaths worldwide because of the COVID-19. Facing such a difficult situation of the epidemic situation of COVID-19, all the countries must struggle together and help each other. Just as the Peterson Institute for International Economics says in their report: The pandemic is not under control anywhere unless controlled everywhere. Therefore, it is crucial to pay more attention to the developing countries with fewer vaccines of COVID-19 and insufficient medical resources. Considering that India is one of the largest developing countries and the epidemic situation there is very serious, we decided to choose India as our research object. We propose a modified SEIR model, added the vaccination rate and the stringency of isolation measures - two crucial factors of the development of the COVID-19. It can be a helpful reference to comparative research and policies of governments and help us better judge the epidemic situation in developing countries.

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A Simple SEIR Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission

Cited by 20 publications

References 7 publications

SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics

SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics

Prediction of COVID-19 Trend in India and Its Four Worst-Affected States Using Modified SEIRD and LSTM Models

SEIR-Based Model for India COVID-19 Prediction

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