A simple scoring system based on clinical factors related to pancreatic texture predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula preoperatively

Abstract

Preoperative stratification of patients regarding risk for POPF by simple clinical parameters is feasible. Pancreatic texture, as evaluated intraoperatively by the surgeon, is the strongest single predictive factor of POPF. The findings of the study may have important implications for perioperative risk assessment and patient care, as well as for the choice of anastomotic techniques.

Developing Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula: a Systematic Review of Methodology and Reporting Quality

“…One studies described the development of a predictive model for POPF, based on perioperative risk factors [10]. Three studies derived a predictive model for POPF based on preoperative risk factors [8,13,17]. Intraoperative risk factors were used by one study to derive a predictive model of POPF [12].…”

“…In terms of geography, three articles were from Asia [8,17,18] and four articles were from Europe [10][11][12][13].…”

“…Three risk prediction models (43 %) were developed in which the number of events per variable was <10 [10,12,13]. Overall, the medium number of events per variable was 10 (IQR 7 to 39, range 5 to 175).…”

“…BMI, fatty pancreas, and pancreatic fibrosis Wellner UF et al [13] 2010 Germany POPF was defined by ISGPF. Age, preoperative diagnosis other than pancreatic carcinoma or chronic pancreatitis, history of smoking, history of weight loss, and history of acute pancreatitis…”

“…Many risk factors for POPF have been identified, such as gender [8], body mass index (BMI) [9,10], status of the pancreatic parenchyma [11], diameter of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) [12], and kind of disease [13]. These risk factors lead to use some special techniques or perioperative precautions to minimize POPF rates [5,14,15].…”