A Simple Nomogram for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) based on risk factors for SAP and to suggest nursing interventions to prevent SAP. In addition, a nomogram was developed to enhance its utility in nursing practice. The retrospective cohort study included 551 patients hospitalized for acute ischemic stroke at a university hospital in South Korea. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire and a review of the electronic medical record (EMR). In the development of a predictive model for SAP, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that independent risk factors for SAP were age ≥ 65 years, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥ 7, nasogastric tube feeding, and C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥ 5.0 mg/dL. The logit model was used to construct the SAP prediction nomogram, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.94. Furthermore, the slope of the calibration plot was close to the 45-degree line, indicating that the developed nomogram may be useful for predicting SAP. It is necessary to monitor the age, NIHSS score, nasogastric tube feeding status, and CRP level of stroke patients and identify high-risk groups using the developed nomogram to provide active nursing interventions to prevent SAP.