A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland

Yuan, Zhigang; Chen, Yuan

doi:10.1101/2020.02.29.20029561

Cited by 22 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Yuan also found the lockdown to be effective at reducing the number of cases outside of Wuhan but notes that the timing also coincided with a nationwide stay-at-home campaign imposed by the central Chinese government. 46 …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Grépin

Liu

et al. 2021

BMJ Glob Health

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ObjectiveTo review the effectiveness of travel measures implemented during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform changes on how evidence is incorporated in the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR).DesignWe used an abbreviated Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols to identify studies that investigated the effectiveness of travel-related measures preprinted or published by 1 June 2020.ResultsWe identified 29 studies, of which 26 were modelled. Thirteen studies investigated international measures, while 17 investigated domestic measures (one investigated both). There was a high level of agreement that the adoption of travel measures led to important changes in the dynamics of the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: the Wuhan measures reduced the number of cases exported internationally by 70%–80% and led to important reductions in transmission within Mainland China. Additional travel measures, including flight restrictions to and from China, may have led to additional reductions in the number of exported cases. Few studies investigated the effectiveness of measures implemented in other contexts. Early implementation was identified as a determinant of effectiveness. Most studies of international travel measures did not account for domestic travel measures thus likely leading to biased estimates.ConclusionTravel measures played an important role in shaping the early transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is an urgent need to address important evidence gaps and also a need to review how evidence is incorporated in the IHR in the early phases of a novel infectious disease outbreak.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Grépin

Liu

et al. 2021

BMJ Glob Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…43 Yuan also found the lockdown to be effective at reducing the number of cases outside of Wuhan but notes that the timing also coincided with a nationwide stay at home campaign imposed by the central Chinese government. 44…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID- 19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Grépin

Liu

et al. 2020

Preprint

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ObjectiveTo review evidence of the effectiveness of travel measures implemented during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to recommend change on how evidence is incorporated in the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR).DesignWe used an abbreviated preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis protocol (PRISMA-P) and a search strategy aimed to identify studies that investigated the effectiveness of travel-related measures (advice, entry and exit screening, medical examination or vaccination requirements, isolation or quarantine, the refusal of entry, and entry restrictions), pre-printed or published by June 1, 2020.ResultsWe identified 29 studies, of which 26 were modelled (vs. observational). Thirteen studies investigated international measures while 17 investigated domestic measures (one investigated both), including suspended transportation (24 studies), border restrictions (21), and screening (5). There was a high level of agreement that the adoption of travel measures led to important changes in the dynamics of the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the identified studies investigated the initial export of cases out of Wuhan, which was found to be highly effective, but few studies investigated the effectiveness of measures implemented in other contexts. Early implementation was identified as a determinant of effectiveness. Most studies of international travel measures failed to account for domestic travel measures, and thus likely led to biased estimates. Poor data and other factors contributed to the low quality of the studies identified.ConclusionTravel measures, especially those implemented in Wuhan, played a key role in shaping the early transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the effectiveness of these measures was short-lived. There is an urgent need to address important evidence gaps, but also a need to review the way in which evidence is incorporated in the IHR in the early phases of a novel infectious disease outbreak.What is already known on this subject?Previous reviews of the evidence from outbreaks of influenza and other infectious disease have generally found that there is limited evidence that travel-measures are effective at containing outbreaks.However, it is unclear if the lessons from other infectious disease outbreaks would be relevant in the context of COVID-19.Based on evidence at the time, WHO did not recommend any travel restrictions when it declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.What does this study add?This study rapidly reviews the evidence on the effectiveness of travel measures implemented in the early phase of the pandemic on epidemiological countries.The study investigated both international and domestic travel measures and a wide range of travel measures.The study finds that the domestic travel measures implemented in Wuhan were effective at reducing the importation of cases internationally and within China. The study also finds that travel measures are more effective when implemented earlier in the outbreak.The findings generate recommendations on how to incorporate evidence into the International Health Regulations and highlights important research gaps that remain.How might this affect future outbreaks?The findings of this study suggest the need to decouple recommendations of travel measures from the declaration of a public health emergency of international concern.Highlights the need to evaluate the potential effectiveness of travel measures for each outbreak, and not just assume effectiveness based on past outbreak scnearios.

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“…In order to monitor and foresee the plausible progress of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, estimation of SI, CFR and R 0 is of prime importance, 5 and daily deaths, and growth rate of COVID-19 cases also display importance in gaging the scale of the pandemic across time and space, and in framing policies and procedures. 6,7…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phasic containment of COVID-19 in substantially affected states of India

Mandal¹,

Mandal

2020

Preprint

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The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic subexponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1, suggesting the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context.

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A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland

Cited by 22 publications

References 14 publications

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID- 19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Phasic containment of COVID-19 in substantially affected states of India

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