A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model

Abstract

JT03342559Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. (2013) This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth) and/or model specification in terms of a fiscal rule confidence bands around the baseline are obtained. Trade-offs between costs and benefits are evaluated, in terms of cumulative output loss and primary surpluses, as well as political difficulty of fiscal strategies and risk of failed consolidation. The model is applied ECO/WKP