A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice

Miles, Martin W.; Divine, D.; Furevik, Tore; Jansen, Eystein; Moros, Matthias; Ogilvie, Astrid E. J.

doi:10.1002/2013gl058084

Cited by 120 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(72 reference statements)

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“…This thickening of ice in the Beaufort sea is linked to a low pressure center over the Arctic in the LMR, which is not present in the CCSM4 prior (or in other reanalyses of the instrumental period). Sea ice retreat coincident with the positive phase of the AMO has also been shown in model-based studies (see, e.g., Miles et al, 2014). Such retreat and thinning of sea ice is also consistent with increased ocean heat transport into the North Atlantic, possibly due to strengthening of the AMOC during the positive phase of the AMO (considered further in Sect.…”

Section: Thermodynamics Of the Amo In The Lmrsupporting

confidence: 71%

“…We find that a positive AMO index coincides with warmer continents, a two-lobed pattern of warming over the Atlantic, and a warmer Arctic (Kushnir, 1994;Delworth and Mann, 2000;Chylek et al, 2009). In the Arctic, sea ice retreats from the Greenland, Iceland, and Nordic seas and thins over much of the Arctic Ocean (Miles et al, 2014). Globally, precipitation increases and the ITCZ strengthens and shifts northward (Knight et al, 2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Modeling and observational studies have shown that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) covary with the following: precipitation over the African Sahel (Zhang and Delworth, 2006), Eurasia (Lu et al, 2006;Zhang and Delworth, 2006), and North America (Enfield et al, 2001); hurricane development and intensity over the Atlantic (Zhang and Delworth, 2006); drought over the North American interior (McCabe et al, 2004;Nigam et al, 2011); summer temperatures over Europe and the Americas (Sutton and Hodson, 2005); sea ice thickness and extent over the Arctic (Miles et al, 2014); climate variability over the Pacific ; and marine primary productivity (Henson et al, 2009). Improved prediction of global climate perturbations likely depends on a better understanding of North Atlantic variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

et al. 2018

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Abstract. The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50-to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

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Section: Thermodynamics Of the Amo In The Lmrsupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

et al. 2018

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“…Both modeling results (31,32) and multicentury historical records (33) showed that winter Arctic sea ice variability is closely linked to the AMV. The AMOC is suggested to have strengthened since the mid 1970s as implied indirectly by its fingerprints (34,35).…”

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confidence: 94%

Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent

Zhang

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

184

174

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Satellite observations reveal a substantial decline in September Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, which has played a leading role in the observed recent Arctic surface warming and has often been attributed, in large part, to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, the most rapid decline occurred during the recent global warming hiatus period. Previous studies are often focused on a single mechanism for changes and variations of summer Arctic sea ice extent, and many are based on short observational records. The key players for summer Arctic sea ice extent variability at multidecadal/ centennial time scales and their contributions to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline are not well understood. Here a multiple regression model is developed for the first time, to the author's knowledge, to provide a framework to quantify the contributions of three key predictors (Atlantic/Pacific heat transport into the Arctic, and Arctic Dipole) to the internal low-frequency variability of Summer Arctic sea ice extent, using a 3,600-y-long control climate model simulation. The results suggest that changes in these key predictors could have contributed substantially to the observed summer Arctic sea ice decline. If the ocean heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future due to internal variability, there might be a hiatus in the decline of September Arctic sea ice. The modeling results also suggest that at multidecadal/centennial time scales, variations in the atmosphere heat transport across the Arctic Circle are forced by anticorrelated variations in the Atlantic heat transport into the Arctic.Arctic sea ice | internal variability | ocean heat transport O bservations reveal multidecadal variations in Arctic surface air temperature (SAT), and amplified Arctic warming similar to that observed in recent decades also occurred during 1930-1940 (1-3). Both observations and climate modeling results suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice is crucial for the early twentieth century Arctic warming, and internal variability is a very likely cause for that event (3). In recent decades, satellite observations reveal a substantial decline in September Arctic sea ice extent (4). This observed recent Arctic sea ice decline is also found to have played a leading role in causing the observed amplified Arctic surface warming in recent decades (5, 6).The summer Arctic was projected to become ice-free within a few decades by some climate models used in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (7, 8), or even within the next decade if extrapolating the observed trend (9). These future projections imply enormous social and economic impacts, such as the potential for trans-Arctic shipping. However, the most rapid decline in summer Arctic sea ice actually occurred during the recent global warming hiatus period. The CMIP5 multimodel mean response to changes in anthropogenic radiative forcings exhibits much less decline in September Arctic sea ice extent (SIE)...

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“…Also, an increasing Atlantic water inflow to the eastern Arctic (Polyakov et al, 2012) is another heat source, that may reach the ice through various mixing mechanisms (Carmack et al, 2015). Variability in Atlantic water in the Arctic may be related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and a similar period of oscillation in the sea-ice pack (Miles et al, 2014). Heat released from the Atlantic water has recently been identified as a significant contributor to sea-ice loss (Polyakov et al, 2017).…”

Section: Positive Feedbacksmentioning

confidence: 99%