A Sensitivity Analysis with COSMO-LM at 1 km Resolution over South Italy

Voudouri, A.; Mercogliano, Paola

doi:10.3390/atmos11040430

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…SCIA database is used yearly for the calculation of climate indices on Italy (Desiato et al, 2011;Fioravanti et al, 2020), but it has been used also for research purposes such as regional climate assessment (e.g., Toreti et al, 2009;Toreti et al, 2010;Fioravanti et al, 2019;Baronetti et al, 2020) or high-resolution model verification (e.g., Bucchignani et al, 2020). The data are already subjected to different quality control levels (Desiato et al, 2007;Fioravanti et al, 2019), with automatic procedures following the ones suggested by Durre et al (2010) and applied to the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) daily dataset.…”

Section: Surface Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Links between precipitation, circulation weather types and orography in central Italy

Silvestri

Saraceni

Cerlini

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Recent analyses of satellite and surface observations reported a negative annual rainfall trend in central Italy. The complex orography of the Apennines and the strong influence of climate change in the Mediterranean basin complicates the explanation of such trends and their spatial variability. This work aims at describing the link between circulation weather types, orography and precipitation patterns observed in central Italy, as a first step towards the understanding of such climate trends. Using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1951 to 2019, four weather types are identified as most responsible for the spatial variability of rainfall in central Italy. They are associated with cyclonic circulations characterized by high water vapour transport coming from west, southwest, south-east and north-east. The analysis of wind speed and precipitation climatology for the period 1951-2019, as derived from both surface observa-

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Section: Surface Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Links between precipitation, circulation weather types and orography in central Italy

Silvestri

Saraceni

Cerlini

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The model was configured and optimized for the specific area of southern Italy, as in a previous work [10] it was found that COSMO was highly sensitive to changes related to the physical soil and atmosphere parameters. In particular, it was shown that the present configuration adequately reduced temperature bias (up to 0.5 • C) and precipitation (even if benefits were less evident) over this complex orographic area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further improvements are obtained by choosing the minimum The model configuration was derived from MeteoSwiss for daily operational simulations at very high resolution (about 1 km). This configuration was calibrated over the domain considered in this work by changing the values of some parameters according to the sensitivity tests described in [10]. As stated by Beven in [20], the parameters must be set properly in order to guarantee that the main features of the real domains are properly reflected in the model.…”

Section: Simulation Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main reason was the assessment of a specific configuration for this geographical area, having a low number of sensitivity tests with the COSMO model. The optimization of the configuration was performed through a tuning procedure [10], aimed at selecting the parameters that have been shown to play a significant role in determining model response [11]. In fact, the COSMO formulation includes several parameterization schemes [12,13], which account statistically for the effects of phenomena that are not described by the governing equations or that occur at unresolved scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Performance Evaluation of High-Resolution Simulations with COSMO over South Italy

Mercogliano

2020

Atmosphere

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This study aims to assess the capabilities of a weather forecasting system based on simulations performed with the COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modeling) model over a domain located in southern Italy, employing a spatial resolution of about 1 km, driven by ECMWF-IFS global data. The model is run daily at the Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), and the evaluation was performed from January to May 2018 using a combination of observational data, specifically data provided by the CIRA meteorological station, wind profiler and ceilometer. Moreover, data provided by radio sounding located at Pratica di Mare and ground stations at two other locations were also used. A model configuration optimized through a tuning procedure over the domain considered was employed, while the evaluation was performed by comparing daily values of several variables and using standard monitoring indices. The results highlight that the model has good capability in reproducing daily values of temperature, while precipitation intensity is generally underestimated, even if rain patterns are well captured (alternating rainy and dry days). Good agreement is also reported for wind speed, especially at 100 and 500 m altitude. Regarding radio sounding data, the COSMO model configuration selected can reproduce the vertical profile of temperature and dew point, with the exception of inversion points. Evaluation against ceilometer data is achieved in terms of cloud height and planetary boundary layer height.

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“…This selection was a crucial task, since there are numerous parameters in the COSMO model indicatively related to sub-grid scale turbulence, surface layer parameterization, grid-scale clouds, precipitation, moist and shallow convection, radiation, soil scheme, etc. In particular, in [13], the most sensitive physical and numerical input parameters were identified for a domain similar to the one considered in the present work. It was found that the parameters with a relevant influence for a proper representation of temperature and precipitation are the heat resistance length of the laminar layer, the minimal diffusion coefficient for heat and momentum, and a factor controlling the vertical velocity of snow.…”

Section: Icon-lam: Model Description and Set Upmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Metamodel-Based Optimization of Physical Parameters of High Resolution NWP ICON-LAM over Southern Italy

2023

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This work represents a first step in the definition of a framework aimed at finding, by means of efficient global optimization based on metamodels, an optimal configuration of physical parameters for the ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) Limited Area Mode at high resolution (about 1.1 km) over Southern Italy, to be used for operational runs. The objective of the optimization is to reduce the distance between observed meteorological variables and modeled data. This distance is measured by an opportunely designed objective function. This work represents a preparatory step, since the input parameters considered are only a reduced number with respect to the huge amount of parameters potentially involved. First, domain size sensitivity was performed to choose the optimal domain. Then, the optimization was conducted by means of an Efficient Global Optimization algorithm relying on a Gaussian-based metamodel. The four parameters considered control the heat transfer in the turbulent layer, the laminar resistance and the snow vertical velocity. They were optimized over a week in November 2018, a period characterized by extreme events in the region considered. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach, reducing the distance from observed data, and the method can be considered promising from the perspective taking into account a larger set of physical parameters, and validation over a wider time-window.

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A Sensitivity Analysis with COSMO-LM at 1 km Resolution over South Italy

Cited by 6 publications

References 24 publications

Links between precipitation, circulation weather types and orography in central Italy

Links between precipitation, circulation weather types and orography in central Italy

Performance Evaluation of High-Resolution Simulations with COSMO over South Italy

A Metamodel-Based Optimization of Physical Parameters of High Resolution NWP ICON-LAM over Southern Italy

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