Abstract:In recent years, the suggestion of combining models as an alternative to selecting a single model from a frequentist prospective has been advanced in a number of studies. In this paper, we propose a new semi-parametric estimator of regression coe¢ cients, which is in the form of a feasible generalized ridge estimator by Hoerl and Kennard (1970b) but with di¤erent biasing factors. We prove that the generalized ridge estimator is algebraically identical to the model average estimator. Further, the biasing factor… Show more
“…Recently, shrinkage estimators are applied to several general models [see e.g., (Hansen 2016a(Hansen , 2017]. Also, it is well known some recent techniques including LASSO, SCAD and model averaging can be considered as kinds of shrinkage estimation [see, e.g., Fan and Li (2001), Hansen (2016b), Tibshirani (1996), Ullah et al (2016) and Zou (2006)]. In particular, extending the idea of Hausman (1978) pre-test in Guggenberger (2010), Hansen (2017) proposed an estimator which consists of the ordinary least squares estimator and the two-stage least squares estimator under the assumption that the correlation coefficient is local to zero.…”
In this paper we consider the Stein-rule estimator and the positive-part Stein-rule estimator for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and analyze the validity of the bootstrap methods for these estimators. We show that the conventional bootstrap is not always consistent and propose an alternative bootstrap method which is consistent when the conventional bootstrap is inconsistent. We also show the consistency of the m out of n bootstrap. Moreover, we propose an consistent bootstrap method based on a pre-test. Our simulation results show the validity of the proposed bootstrap in various setups.
KeywordsStein-rule estimator • m out of n bootstrap • Centered bootstrap • Pre-test bootstrap JEL Classification C13 • C18 * Akio Namba
“…Recently, shrinkage estimators are applied to several general models [see e.g., (Hansen 2016a(Hansen , 2017]. Also, it is well known some recent techniques including LASSO, SCAD and model averaging can be considered as kinds of shrinkage estimation [see, e.g., Fan and Li (2001), Hansen (2016b), Tibshirani (1996), Ullah et al (2016) and Zou (2006)]. In particular, extending the idea of Hausman (1978) pre-test in Guggenberger (2010), Hansen (2017) proposed an estimator which consists of the ordinary least squares estimator and the two-stage least squares estimator under the assumption that the correlation coefficient is local to zero.…”
In this paper we consider the Stein-rule estimator and the positive-part Stein-rule estimator for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and analyze the validity of the bootstrap methods for these estimators. We show that the conventional bootstrap is not always consistent and propose an alternative bootstrap method which is consistent when the conventional bootstrap is inconsistent. We also show the consistency of the m out of n bootstrap. Moreover, we propose an consistent bootstrap method based on a pre-test. Our simulation results show the validity of the proposed bootstrap in various setups.
KeywordsStein-rule estimator • m out of n bootstrap • Centered bootstrap • Pre-test bootstrap JEL Classification C13 • C18 * Akio Namba
Structural changes often occur in economics and finance due to changes in preferences, technologies, institutional arrangements, policies, crises, etc. Improving forecast accuracy of economic time series with structural changes is a long-standing problem. Model averaging aims at providing an insurance against selecting a poor forecast model. All existing model averaging approaches in the literature are designed with constant (non-time-varying) combination weights. Little attention has been paid to time-varying model averaging, which is more realistic in economics under structural changes. This paper proposes a novel model averaging estimator which selects optimal time-varying combination weights by minimizing a local jackknife criterion. It is shown that the proposed time-varying jackknife model averaging (TVJMA) estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible local squared error loss in a class of time-varying model averaging estimators. Under a set of regularity assumptions, the TVJMA estimator is √ T h-consistent. A simulation study and an empirical application highlight the merits of the proposed TVJMA estimator relative to a variety of popular estimators with constant model averaging weights and model selection.
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