A scaled kernel density estimation prior for dynamic borrowing of historical information with application to clinical trial design

Abstract

Incorporating historical data into a current data analysis can improve estimation of parameters shared across both datasets and increase the power to detect associations of interest while reducing the time and cost of new data collection. Several methods for prior distribution elicitation have been introduced to allow for the data‐driven borrowing of historical information within a Bayesian analysis of the current data. We propose scaled Gaussian kernel density estimation (SGKDE) prior distributions as potentially more flexible alternatives. SGKDE priors directly use posterior samples collected from a historical data analysis to approximate probability density functions, whose variances depend on the degree of similarity between the historical and current datasets, which are used as prior distributions in the current data analysis. We compare the performances of the SGKDE priors with some existing approaches using a simulation study. Data from a recently completed phase III clinical trial of a maternal vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus are used to further explore the properties of SGKDE priors when designing a new clinical trial while incorporating historical data. Overall, both studies suggest that the new approach results in improved parameter estimation and power in the current data analysis compared to the considered existing methods.