A robust methodology for conducting large-scale assessments of current and future water availability and use: A case study in Tasmania, Australia

Post, David; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Viney, Neil R.; Ling, Fiona; Harrington, Glenn A.; Crosbie, Russell; Graham, B; Marvanek, Steve; McLoughlin, Robyn

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.011

Cited by 37 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Quantile mapping is a bias-correction technique shown to be highly effective at removing biases across the entire cumulative frequency distribution of a given variable (Ines and Hansen, 2006;Piani et al, 2010a). Quantile mapping has been successfully used to couple RCMs to hydrological models in several northern hemisphere studies (Wood et al, 2004;Fowler and Kilsby, 2007;Akhtar et al, 2009), but has not been used for major regional hydroclimatological studies in Australia, where indirect coupling methods based on pattern scaling and simple perturbation of historical observations have been more popular (Chiew et al, 2009;Petheram et al, 2009;Charles et al, 2010;Post et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tasmania has been the subject of a major hydroclimatological study by Post et al (2012) that reviewed future availability of surface water in Tasmania to 2030. Post et al (2012) used pattern scaling (Mitchell, 2003) of GCMs and a series of hydrological models to better replicate spatial variation in Tasmanian runoff. Post et al's (2012) median future scenario projected decreased mean annual runoff in Tasmania's central highlands and north-eastern highlands of up to 30 % by 2030, with little change elsewhere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Post et al (2012) used pattern scaling (Mitchell, 2003) of GCMs and a series of hydrological models to better replicate spatial variation in Tasmanian runoff. Post et al's (2012) median future scenario projected decreased mean annual runoff in Tasmania's central highlands and north-eastern highlands of up to 30 % by 2030, with little change elsewhere. No region was projected to experience increased runoff under the median scenario by 2030.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…No region was projected to experience increased runoff under the median scenario by 2030. Post et al (2012) note that there are plans to develop new irrigation infrastructure in Tasmania in light of declining agricultural yields in the Murray Darling Basin and south-west Western Australia. Longer-term high-resolution projections of surface water availability are needed for informed water management and planning in Tasmania for the 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Bennett

Ling²,

Post

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961-1990 to 2070-2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km 2 ) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows.The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3 %) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22 %). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections.There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30 % are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use highresolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Bennett

Ling²,

Post

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable‐resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case

et al. 2013

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[1] In this study we develop methods for dynamically downscaling output from six general circulation models (GCMs) for two emissions scenarios using a variable-resolution atmospheric climate model. The use of multiple GCMs and emissions scenarios gives an estimate of model range in projected changes to the mean climate across the region. By modeling the atmosphere at a very fine scale, the simulations capture processes that are important to regional weather and climate at length scales that are subgrid scale for the host GCM. We find that with a multistaged process of increased resolution and the application of bias adjustment methods, the ability of the simulation to reproduce observed conditions improves, with greater than 95% of the spatial variance explained for temperature and about 90% for rainfall. Furthermore, downscaling leads to a significant improvement for the temporal distribution of variables commonly used in applied analyses, reproducing seasonal variability in line with observations. This seasonal signal is not evident in the GCMs. This multistaged approach allows progressive improvement in the skill of the simulations in order to resolve key processes over the region with quantifiable improvements in the correlations with observations.

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Quantifying the effects of elevated CO₂ on water budgets by combining FACE data with an ecohydrological model

et al. 2014

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Response of leaf area index (LAI) is the key determinant for predicting impacts of the elevated CO2 (eCO2) on water budgets. Importance of the changes in functional attributes of vegetation associated with eCO2 for predicting responses of LAI has rarely been addressed. In this study, the WAter Vegetation Energy and Solute (WAVES) model was applied to simulate ecohydrological effects of the eCO2 at two free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experimental sites with contrasting vegetation. One was carried out by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory on the forest (ORNL FACE). The other one was conducted by the University of Minnesota on the grass (BioCON FACE). Results demonstrated that changes in functional attributes of vegetation (including reduction in specific leaf area, changes in carbon assimilation and allocation characteristics) and availability of nutrients are important for reproducing the responses of LAI, transpiration and soil moisture at both sites. Predicted LAI increased slightly at both sites because of fertilization effects of the eCO2. Simulated transpiration decreased 10·5% at ORNL site and 13·8% at BioCON site because of reduction in the stomatal conductance. Predicted evaporation from interception and soil surface increased slightly (<1·0 mm year−1) at both sites because of increased LAI and litter production, and increased soil moisture resulted from reduced transpiration. All components of run‐off were predicted to increase because of significant decrease in transpiration. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration decreased about 8·7% and 10·8%, and mean annual run‐off increased about 11·1% (59·3 mm year−1) and 9·5% (37·6 mm year−1) at the ORNL and BioCON FACE sites, respectively. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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A robust methodology for conducting large-scale assessments of current and future water availability and use: A case study in Tasmania, Australia

Cited by 37 publications

References 18 publications

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable‐resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case

Quantifying the effects of elevated CO₂ on water budgets by combining FACE data with an ecohydrological model

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A robust methodology for conducting large-scale assessments of current and future water availability and use: A case study in Tasmania, Australia

Cited by 37 publications

References 18 publications

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable‐resolution regional climate model: Tasmania as a test case

Quantifying the effects of elevated CO2 on water budgets by combining FACE data with an ecohydrological model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Quantifying the effects of elevated CO₂ on water budgets by combining FACE data with an ecohydrological model