A roadmap investment strategy to reduce carbon intensive refrigerants in the food retail industry

Abstract

High global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant leakage is the second-highest source of carbon emissions across UK supermarket retailers and a major concern for commercial organizations. Recent stringent UN and EU regulations promoting lower GWP refrigerants have been ratified to tackle the high carbon footprint of current refrigerants. This paper introduces a data-driven modelling framework for optimal investment strategies supporting the food retail industry to transition from hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigeration systems to lower GWP systems by 2030, in line with EU legislation. Representative data from a UK food retailer is applied in a mixed integer linear model, making simultaneous investment decisions across the property estate. The model considers refrigeration-system age, capacity, refrigerant type, leakage and past-performance relative to peer systems in the rest of the estate. This study proposes two possible actions for high GWP HFC refrigeration systems: a) complying with legislation by retrofitting with an HFO blend (e.g. R449-A) or b) installing a new natural refrigerant system (e.g. R744). Findings indicate that a standard (i.e. business-as-usual) investment level of £6 m/yr drives a retrofitting strategy enabling significant reduction in annual carbon emissions of 71% by the end of 2030 (against the 2018 baseline), along with meeting regulatory compliance. The strategy is also highly effective at reducing emissions in the short term as total emissions during the 12-year programme are 59% lower than would have been experienced if the HFC emissions continued unabated. However, this spending level leaves the business at significant risk of refrigeration system failures as necessary investments in new systems are delayed resulting in an ageing, poorly performing estate. The model is further tested under different budget and policy scenarios and the financial, environmental, and business-risk implications are analysed. For example, under a more aggressive investment approach of £50 m/yr carbon reductions are at 93% by the end of 2030, whilst also ensuring compliance with the legislative cut-off four years early in 2026 and substantially enhancing the reliability of the refrigeration systems in the portfolio. Alternatively, when emissions are minimised instead of cost with an annual budget of £50m a decarbonisation of 99% is achieved by 2030. Overall, the study highlights the trade-offs between capital investment and system resilience requiring a careful balance of priorities and the need to have up to date information so decision-makers can reliably drive a successful strategy towards more sustainable operation of refrigeration systems.

The development of a low-carbon roadmap investment strategy to reach Science Based Targets for commercial organisations with multi-site properties

“…To satisfy heating demand supermarkets are exploring heat recovery methods from their refrigeration systems so they can displace natural gas related emissions, although matching supply and demand is a persistent issue that requires thermal storage [14]. With regards to minimising the impact of carbon intensive refrigerants advanced performance indicators championing energy efficiency and leakage reduction is advocated [15] as well as the phasing out of HFC refrigerants by increasing the uptake of natural refrigerants [16]. Lastly, it seems decarbonising transport fleets is a more challenging endeavour, where exploring alternative fuels to diesel such as LNG or biomethane is being considered, however the refuelling infrastructure to supply low carbon fuels is a major roadblock [17].…”

An overview of the interactions between food production and climate change

“…In their study, Hart et al (2020) considered a modeling framework for maximum investment strategies that support the food retail industry in shifting from hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigeration systems to lower GWP systems by 2030, in line with EU legislation, resulting in up to a 70 % annual reduction in yearly carbon emissions by 2030. Some authors, like Wang et al (2021), propose defining a clear refrigerant dosage scheme for future refrigerant replacement phasing-out.…”

Role of the Food Supply Chain Stakeholders in Achieving UN SDGs

“…These impacts clearly identify a need for climate action (SDG 13) associated with GHG emissions and ozone layer depletion linked with storage/retail [53]. One approach is shifting from hydrofluorocarbon refrigeration systems to systems with lower impact on climate change, in line with the EU legislation [54]. In addition, a simulation of sustainability of perishable food supply chains revealed that perishability of food may increase various environmental impacts up to 120% [55].…”