Background
Subjective cognitive impairment (SCI) in older persons without
manifest symptomatology is a common condition with a largely unclear
prognosis. We hypothesized that (1) examining outcome for a sufficient
period by using conversion to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia
would clarify SCI prognosis, and (2) with the aforementioned procedures, the
prognosis of SCI subjects would differ significantly from that of
demographically matched healthy subjects, free of SCI, termed no cognitive
impairment (NCI) subjects.
Methods
A consecutive series of healthy subjects, aged ≥40 years,
presenting with NCI or SCI to a brain aging and dementia research center
during a 14-year interval, were studied and followed up during an 18-year
observation window. The study population (60 NCI, 200 SCI, 60%
female) had a mean age of 67.2 ± 9.1 years, was well-educated (mean,
15.5 ± 2.7 years), and cognitively normal (Mini-Mental State
Examination, 29.1 ± 1.2).
Results
A total of 213 subjects (81.9% of the study population) were
followed up. Follow-up occurred during a mean period of 6.8 ± 3.4
years, and subjects had a mean of 2.9 ± 1.6 follow-up visits. Seven
NCI (14.9%) and 90 SCI (54.2%) subjects declined
(P < .0001). Of NCI decliners, five declined to
MCI and two to probable Alzheimer’s disease. Of SCI decliners, 71
declined to MCI and 19 to dementia diagnoses. Controlling for baseline
demographic variables and follow-up time, Weibull proportional hazards model
revealed increased decline in SCI subjects (hazard ratio, 4.5; 95%
confidence interval, 1.9–10.3), whereas the accelerated failure time
model analysis with an underlying Weibull survival function showed that SCI
subjects declined more rapidly, at 60% of the rate of NCI subjects
(95% confidence interval, 0.45–0.80). Furthermore, mean time
to decline was 3.5 years longer for NCI than for SCI subjects
(P = .0003).
Conclusions
These results indicate that SCI in subjects with normal cognition is
a harbinger of further decline in most subjects during a 7-year mean
follow-up interval. Relevance for community populations should be
investigated, and prevention studies in this at-risk population should be
explored.