A Risk-Based Approach to Mine-Site Rehabilitation: Use of Bayesian Belief Network Modelling to Manage Dispersive Soil and Spoil

Abstract

Dispersive spoil/soil management is a major environmental and economic challenge for active coal mines as well as sustainable mine closure across the globe. To explore and design a framework for managing dispersive spoil, considering the complexities as well as data availability, this paper has developed a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)-a probabilistic predictive framework to support practical and cost-effective decisions for the management of dispersive spoil. This approach enabled incorporation of expert knowledge where data were insufficient for modelling purposes. The performance of the model was validated using field data from actively managed mine sites and found to be consistent in the prediction of soil erosion and ground cover. Agreement between predicted soil erosion probability and field observations was greater than 74%, and greater than 70% for ground cover protection. The model performance was further noticeably improved by calibration of Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs). This demonstrates the value of the BBN modelling approach, whereby the use of currently best-available data can provide a practical result, with the capacity for significant model improvement over time as more (targeted) data come to hand.

Remote Sensing Identification and Hazard Assessment Methods for Spoil Sites

“…In addition, researchers have conducted extensive research on regional geological hazards' assessment and analysis. To this end, emerging remote sensing methods, including aerial remote sensing platforms (Yang et al, 2022;Herng et al, 2019), sensors, UAVs (Yang, 2022), airborne LiDAR (Liang et al, 2021;Xu, 2019Xu, ,2020Xu, ,2022a, in combination with analytic hierarchy process (Li, 2021), random subspace fuzzy rules (Binh et al, 2016), grey relational analysis (Liu, 2022), backward cloud algorithm (Tian and Xiao, 2019), rough-set-based extension evaluation models (Qiao et al, 2020), multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models (Wang, 2020), and precision evaluation methods related to stability (Du, 2018), as well as Bayesian belief networks (John et al, 2021), have been utilized for comprehensive regional assessments.…”

Research on geological environment protection and geological disasters control countermeasures in China

“…Therefore, from the perspective of enterprise governance, a corresponding dynamic improvement path is adopted in an attempt to increase the degree of intensification. In the literature [27], a Bayesian belief network probabilistic prediction framework was developed to support practical and cost-effective decision making for decentralized disposal management. This approach allows the incorporation of expert knowledge in cases where data are insufficient for modeling.…”