A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom

Abstract

Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high‐voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three‐part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event to £0.9 billion.

The Great Storm of May 1921: An Exemplar of a Dangerous Space Weather Event

“…They are also vital for exercises to test mitigation plans and to train key personnel in government and industry (Cabinet Office, ; Krausmann et al, ). Scenarios are also critical inputs for realistic studies on the socio‐economic impact of space weather (Eastwood et al, ; Oughton et al, ).…”

Quantifying the Economic Value of Space Weather Forecasting for Power Grids: An Exploratory Study

“…The impact of morbidity and power infrastructure damage is also accounted for. Oughton et al () explore the specific impact of severe space weather on the UK, tensioned against forecast quality. For a 1‐in‐100‐year event, they find gross domestic product loss as high as £15.9bn, reducing to £2.9bn with current forecasting and further reduced to £0.9bn in a scenario with improved forecasting.…”

Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

“…This happened because this substation was the only grid supply point to the underlying networks of dependent assets. To understand such disruptions across interconnected infrastructure different modeling techniques have been employed, which include, among others, agent‐based models of complex adaptive systems (Schoenwald, Barton, & Ehlen, ), empirical analysis (Utne, Hokstad, & Vatn, ), system dynamics approaches (Bush et al., ), network‐science based models (Zio, ), input–output (IO) economics (Oughton, Skelton, Horne, Thomson, & Gaunt, ; Santos et al., ), macroeconomic econometric methods (Oughton et al., ), and computational general equilibrium (CGE) models (Rose, Oladosu, & Liao, ; Rose & Wei, ). For a detailed literature review on different modeling techniques, see Ouyang ().…”