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T h i s report
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Executive SummaryThis report describes the results fi-om application of the Risk-Bused Decision Management Approach for Justi&ing Characterization of Hanford Tank Waste (Colson et al. 1997) to the organic-nitrate safety issue in Hanford single-shell tanks (SSTs). Existing chemical and physical models were used, taking advantage of the most current (mid-1997) sampling and analysis data. The purpose of this study is to make specific recommendations for planning characterization to help ensure the safety of each SST as it relates to the organic-nitrate safety issue. An additional objective is to demonstrate the viability of the Risk-Based Strategy (Colson et al. 1997) for addressing Hanford tank waste safety issues.
Major Findings about the Application to the Organic-Nitrate Safety Issue -The application of this risk-based strategy to the organic-nitrate safety issue resulted in risk estimates and a risk ranking for the 149 SSTs. Eleven SSTs had such limited data on their contents that they were not considered in the analysis. Additional characterization work is recommended for these tanks. Twelve tanks were identified as having a high priority for additional characterization or potential mitigative controls based on fi-equency of HEPA filter breach or tank dome failure greater than 1OE-5 per year. Forty-seven tanks had extremely low risk (less than 1E-lo), and no additional characterization or mitigative controls are recommended.The remaining 79 tanks had frequencies of HEPA filter breach between 1E-10 and 1OE-5 per year. Application of this risk-based strategy focuses additional characterization and potential mitigative actions on the higher-risk tanks. The major findings of this study are further described in the following paragraphs.Quantitative risk predictions allow prioritization of decisions about management of risk In order to conduct the most cost-effective safety actions, it is vital to be able to select the highest-value actions as determined by a defensible risk analysis. This work demonstrates the value of quantitative risk assessments (and the use of progressive risk screening criteria in the simplification of risk calculations) to aid in decision making for the organic-nitrate safety issue. It requires establishing a risk target that is defensible and acceptable as being essential to guide the management of the safety issue. Uncertainty is quantified in the risk estimate and can be managed in the ensuing decision making.For most tanks, the largest contribution to the estimated risk is uncertainty in knowledge about the waste contents and their spatial distribution. This is uncertainty around the information or data. It is quantified and represented in the estimated risk. Individual samples taken fi-om the tanks do not indicate significant risk. Furthermore, with the exception of a few tanks, sampling and analysis results are found t...