A Risk Analysis of Converting Conservation Reserve Program Acres to a Wheat–Sorghum–Fallow Rotation

Williams, Jeffery; Llewelyn, Richard V.; Pendell, Dustin L.; Schlegel, Alan J.; Dumler, Troy J.

doi:10.2134/agronj2009.0142

Cited by 17 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Higher N application increased NR risk and high N was not the preferred option for risk-averse producers (Pendell et al, 2007;Meyer-Aurich et al, 2009). Converting Conservation Reserve Program land back into annual crop production was found to be more risky than remaining in the program, but with high grain prices, risk-neutral or slightly risk-averse producers would prefer annual cropping if using reduced tillage or no-till (Williams et al, 2010). An analysis of malting barley production risk, including yield, price, and acceptance risk, found that the insurance and contracting strategy infl uenced risk premiums and the preferred strategy (Wilson et al, 2009).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Net Return Risk for Malting Barley Production in Western Canada as Influenced by Production Strategies

Smith

O’Donovan

Henderson³

et al. 2012

Agronomy Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Th e objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of agronomic practices on net return (NR) risk for malting barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production. Th is study used data from two fi eld experiments conducted from 2005 to 2008 at eight rainfed locations in western Canada. Th e fi rst part of this study included 30 production strategies of barley type, seeding rate, and N rate for four regions. Th e second part of this study included 10 production strategies of seeding date and seeding rate for four regions. A stochastic simulation model was specifi ed to compute the NR. Yield, protein, plumpness, and price were random in the model, drawn from multivariate distributions based on fi eld data and historical price data. Th e malting cultivar CDC Copeland had higher NR than AC Metcalfe or feed barley. Seeding early at a rate of 200 to 300 seeds m -2 had higher NR than late seeding or higher seeding rates. A fertilizer rate of 60 to 90 kg N ha -1 had higher NR. A producer with high risk aversion preferred strategies that were less risky including: less N fertilizer, growing feed barley in regions that have high protein and smaller price premiums for malting, and seeding later.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Net Return Risk for Malting Barley Production in Western Canada as Influenced by Production Strategies

Smith

O’Donovan

Henderson³

et al. 2012

Agronomy Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Furthermore, Klemme [3] stated that changes in yields or costs, such as reduced herbicide costs through improved weed control in no-till planting, could lead to quite different tillage system rankings for risk averse farmers (and consequently improve the relative attractiveness of no-till). This observation was confirmed by Williams et al [25] who noted that in the current economic environment the volatility of input costs may play nearly as big a role in tillage and cropping decisions as commodity prices.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…They concluded that, although deficit irrigation was stochastically more efficient than full irrigation under limited water supply conditions, irrigation farmers would not voluntarily choose to conserve water through deficit irrigation and would require compensation to do so. Finally, Williams et al [25] examined the economic potential of producing a wheat and grain sorghum rotation with three different tillage strategies (conventional, reduced, and no-till) compared with the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in a semiarid region. They used enterprise budgeting and SERF to determine the preferred management strategies under various risk preferences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continuum of Risk Analysis Methods to Assess Tillage System Sustainability at the Experimental Plot Level

Fathelrahman¹,

Ascough

Hoag

et al. 2011

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study applied a broad continuum of risk analysis methods including mean-variance and coefficient of variation (CV) statistical criteria, second-degree stochastic dominance (SSD), stochastic dominance with respect to a function (SDRF), and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) for comparing income-risk efficiency sustainability of conventional and reduced tillage systems. Fourteen years (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003) of economic budget data derived from 35 treatments on 36 experimental plots under corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) at the Iowa State University Northeast Research Station near Nashua, IA, USA were used. In addition to the other analyses, a visually-based Stoplight or "probability of target value" procedure was employed for displaying gross margin and net return probability distribution information. Mean-variance and CV analysis of the economic measures alone provided somewhat OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2011, 3 1036 contradictive and inconclusive sustainability rankings, i.e., corn/soybean gross margin and net return showed that different tillage system alternatives were the highest ranked depending on the criterion and type of crop. Stochastic dominance analysis results were similar for SSD and SDRF in that both the conventional and reduced tillage system alternatives were highly ranked depending on the type of crop and tillage system. For the SERF analysis, results were dependent on the type of crop and level of risk aversion. The conventional tillage system was preferred for both corn and soybean for the Stoplight analysis. The results of this study are unique in that they highlight the potential of both traditional stochastic dominance and SERF methods for distinguishing economically sustainable choices between different tillage systems across a range of risk aversion. This study also indicates that the SERF risk analysis method appears to be a useful and easily understood tool to assist farm managers, experimental researchers, and potentially policy makers and advisers on problems involving agricultural risk and sustainability.

show abstract

“…This modelling approach is a common risk analysis method for economic analyses and has been applied to, for example, organic production systems, tillage, and N rates (Lien et al 2007;Meyer-Aurich et al 2009;Williams et al 2010). An analysis of malting barley production risk, including yield, price, N rate, and type of barley, found risk-averse producers would reduce their risk by growing feed barley rather than malting and by reducing N fertility .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of production systems on return and risk from malting barley production in western Canada

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Profitable malting barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production systems are required to reverse the decline in area seeded to malting barley in western Canada. Systems that could increase the profitability of growing malting barley considered the previous crop, nitrogen (N) rate, and fungicide application. The net return (NR) and risk for these systems were computed from western Canada field data. Analysis of variance was used to evaluate the impact of systems on NR over 21 site-years of field data. Risk was evaluated with a stochastic simulation model. NR was higher and risk lower for malting barley when the preceding crop was field pea (Pisum sativum L.), when fungicide was applied at the flag leaf stage for leaf disease control, and when N was 50% of the recommended N rate. Therefore, malting barley should be grown on field pea stubble at a lower N rate, with fungicide applied when there are leaf diseases.Key words: malting barley, net return, risk, fungicide, nitrogen, previous crop.Résumé : On a besoin de systèmes de production rentables pour cultiver l'orge brassicole (Hordeum vulgare L.) et renverser le déclin actuel de la superficie consacrée à cette culture dans l'Ouest canadien. Parmi les moyens susceptibles d'accroître la rentabilité de l'orge brassicole figurent la culture antérieure, le taux d'application des engrais azotés (N) et l'usage de fongicides. Les auteurs ont calculé le revenu net (RN) et les risques associés à de tels systèmes à partir des données glanées sur le terrain dans l'ouest du Canada. L'analyse de la variance a permis d'évaluer l'impact de ces solutions sur le RN grâce aux données recueillies à 21 sites-années. Les risques ont été évalués au moyen d'un modèle de simulation stochastique. Le RN de l'orge brassicole est plus élevé et les risques liés à cette culture sont plus faibles quand celle-ci est précédée par la culture du pois (Pisum sativum L.), quand on applique un fongicide au stade de la feuille paniculaire pour lutter contre les maladies foliaires et quand on coupe le taux recommandé d'engrais N en deux. On devrait cultiver l'orge brassicole sur du chaume de pois en appliquant moins d'engrais N et en recourant à un fongicide là où sévissent des maladies foliaires. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Mots-clés : orge brassicole, revenu net, risque, fongicide, azote, culture antérieure.

show abstract

A Risk Analysis of Converting Conservation Reserve Program Acres to a Wheat–Sorghum–Fallow Rotation

Cited by 17 publications

References 17 publications

Net Return Risk for Malting Barley Production in Western Canada as Influenced by Production Strategies

Net Return Risk for Malting Barley Production in Western Canada as Influenced by Production Strategies

Continuum of Risk Analysis Methods to Assess Tillage System Sustainability at the Experimental Plot Level

Influence of production systems on return and risk from malting barley production in western Canada

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About