A right-to-left policy switch? An analysis of the Honduran case under Manuel Zelaya

Abstract

A member of the Honduran elite and elected president with a right-of-center platform in 2005, Manuel Zelaya soon came to be allied with Latin America's bloc of radical left-wing governments-this being the first case of a post-democratization right-to-left policy switch in the region. The aim of this article is to assess the reasons that could have motivated Zelaya's ideological turn. After a brief discussion of the Honduran political process, we review the literature about the issue of policy switching and proceed to an empirical analysis of the Honduran case. We find that the fragility of the country's energy sector and the alliance with Venezuela in a context of international economic crisis and high oil prices could have triggered a causal mechanism in Honduras similar to the one caused by currency scarcity and international pressure pointed to by the literature as the leading cause for traditional left-to-right switches, which suggests that this case study could serve as a pattern-matching exercise to the general findings of currently accepted switch theory.

Seeking Sanctuary: Violence Against Women in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala

“…In 2009, for instance, Honduran forces apprehended President Manuel Zelaya, which forced his exit out of the country. The international community recognized the actions of the military as a coup and imposed economic sanctions on the country which exacerbated its social inequalities, already compounded by high homicides, femicides, robberies, and extortion (Cunha Filho et al, 2013). During and after the coup, there were informed cases of enforced disappearances of women.…”

Action Between the Legal and the Illegal: A-Legality as a Political–Legal Strategy

“…This is particularly well illustrated through the spectacular events which unfolded when Honduran President Zelaya attempted to use an a-legal referendum to support the creation of a Honduran Constituent Assembly. Sometimes framed in terms of the president’s leftward ‘policy-switch’, the idea for a constituent assembly to rewrite the country’s constitution was hoped to ‘transform the country’s participatory structures and institutionalise mechanisms of direct democracy’ (Cunha Filho et al, 2013: 7). However, by 2009, President Zelaya lacked congressional support to pass binding legislation to initiate such a process.…”

“…The military should rectify their position in favour of the people and ignore the extortion of the elite. (Zelaya, cited in CNN, 2009)Zelaya refused to cease plans for the poll, and on the morning, it was due to take place he was removed in a civil-military coup initiated by his own party in alliance with the army and Honduran business elite and with the support of Congress (Cunha Filho et al, 2013; Llanos and Marsteintredet, 2010). It is generally agreed that the poll was the immediate trigger (Cunha Filho et al, 2013; Llanos and Marsteintredet, 2010; Benjamin, 2009).…”

Rethinking the Politics of the Shift Left in Latin America: Towards a Relational Approach

“…This has been relevant in social policy innovations across the region and in the politics of opposition in countries such as Peru and Colombia. In Mexico from 2006 to 2012, the Left in opposition mediated policy‐making; while the perceived threat from the regional shift Left precipitated a coup in Honduras in 2009 (Cunha Filho, Coelho, and Perez Flores, ). In all cases, ideas and mobilisation continue to affect the relational power of the state, whether in terms of dealing with new political parties in opposition, or even the repression of activism (Cannon and Hume, ).…”