A Revolution in Cyber Affairs?

Abstract

There are several significant developments in computing, networks and information security that may affect the balance of offensive cyber operations (OCOs) over the coming years and decades. These changes are more likely to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, by intensifying the existing characteristics of OCOs rather than altogether supplanting them. This chapter assesses the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous platforms and augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) on OCOs by examining current development trajectories and their potential significance. These developments all demonstrate the increased reliance of human society on information networks and therefore represent potentially deepening vulnerabilities. Developments in artificial intelligence may both increase efficiency in scaled offensive operations while creating new vulnerable centers of gravity. Autonomous vehicles (drones)--and swarms thereof--may represent an increase in safe military lethality, but the complexity in controlling them remotely may similarly create an exploitable vulnerability. Considering the tendency of humanity to innovate first and worry about security later, there is significant need for continuous, active monitoring of these trends.