A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis

Jia-jun, Wang; He, Zhichao; Weng, Wenguo

doi:10.1007/s11069-020-04259-3

Cited by 71 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The fuzzy scale ranking is mainly used to determine qualitative human thinking into valuations and ratings [68]. This approach is used most commonly in converting linguistic scale ("strongly disagree", "disagree", "fair", "agree" and "strongly agree") into a five point Likert scale (1,2,3,4,5) in which human thinking is subjective and responses may lead to unreasonable results.…”

Section: Technique Referencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of societal trust on multi-hazard early warning (MHEW) mechanism: Sri Lankan context

Arachchi

Siriwardana

Amaratunga³

et al. 2021

IJDRBE

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Purpose It is significant to assess the societal trust toward the new advancements in multi-hazard early warnings (MHEW) with the focus on disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on this, the purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of societal trust behavior along with the parameters such as mode of communication and institutions of issuing early warnings (EWs). Design/methodology/approach A field questionnaire survey was conducted to identify the extent of societal trust. This was conducted in ten selected Grama Niladari divisions in Sri Lanka based on a developed hazard matrix. The fuzzy logic approach was applied to examine the trust level of collected 323 responses obtained through this. The analysis was done based on the responses on mobile-based platforms in EW and the credibility level of the warnings received through different institutions. Findings The analyzed survey responses indicated that society has a higher extent of trust toward the EWs disseminated through mobile-based platforms. Moreover, these represent a strong positive correlation among the societal trust level and the level of importance of EW dissemination through mobile-based platforms. Further, in terms of trusted stakeholders in issuing EW alerts, Disaster Management Center, Sri Lanka Police and Media ranked the highest in the Sri Lankan context. Overall, findings were visually mapped through the causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Practical implications In enhancing the effectiveness of the existing MHEW mechanism, the policy implications could be done, based on the results obtained from this research study. These could be altered with the implementation of DRR strategies with a community focus. Originality/value The fuzzy logic approach was used in the determination of the societal decision-making on the extent of trust level. Fuzzy triangulation is mainly applied in the interpretation of the results. Further, overall parameters that determine the community trust on MHEW are represented through CLDs through system dynamics application.

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Section: Technique Referencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of societal trust on multi-hazard early warning (MHEW) mechanism: Sri Lankan context

Arachchi

Siriwardana

Amaratunga³

et al. 2021

IJDRBE

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“…The disaster risk is dependent on the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure in terms of the population, ecology, and society, which have been widely used to effectively quantify the potential loss [37,[40][41][42]. During the risk assessment process of the earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain, one of the difficult points in such research is the hazard assessment of debris flows in areas affected by earthquake-triggered landslides [20,[43][44][45][46][47]. Mathematical analysis and numerical simulation are the main methods used in this research field [20,46].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the risk assessment process of the earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain, one of the difficult points in such research is the hazard assessment of debris flows in areas affected by earthquake-triggered landslides [20,[43][44][45][46][47]. Mathematical analysis and numerical simulation are the main methods used in this research field [20,46]. Mathematical analysis is mainly based on the establishment of an indicator system, including rainfall, topography, lithology, and vegetation, to evaluate the hazards in potential areas [6,44].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The potential path in the gully and the alluvial fan are the potential hazard areas and their ranges are important parts for debris-flow risk assessment [48]. Considering the cascading effect in an earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain, the conditions necessary for the formation of a debris flow in Wenchuan are rainstorms and landslide-triggered non-compacted materials [18,[43][44][45][46]. Hazard analysis could further consider the influences of these factors and strengthen the expression of factors such as the material source and peak discharge to achieve reliable risk assessment of landslide-generated debris flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China

Han

Yin

Yu-ming

et al. 2021

IJGI

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Earthquakes often cause secondary disasters in mountainous areas, forming the typical earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain for a long time that results in a series of losses. It is important to improve the risk assessment method from the perspective of cascading effect of such a disaster chain, by strengthening quantitative research on hazards of the debris flows which are affected by landslide volume and rainstorm intensity. Taking Wenchuan County as an example, the risk assessment method for population loss of the disaster chain is established and the risks are evaluated in this paper. The results show that the population loss risk is 2.59–2.71 people/km2 under the scenarios of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and four rainstorm intensities. The impacts of landslide and debris flow after the earthquake were long-term and profound. A comparison of risks caused by each element of the chain revealed that the risk associated with the earthquake accounted for the highest proportion, and landslide and debris flow accounted for 38.82–37.18% and 3.42–7.50%, respectively. As the earthquake intensity increases, the total risk posed by the disaster chain increases significantly. The risk caused by the earthquake is the highest in high earthquake intensity zones; while in the lower-intensity zones, landslides and debris flows pose relatively high risks. The risk assessment results were verified through comparison with actual data, indicating that the simulation results are quite consistent with the existing disaster information and that the risk assessment method based on the earthquake-landslide-debris flow cascade process is significant for future risk estimation.

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“…Different societies have different levels of sensitivity to a disaster. One of the important aspects of Natech event research is to study the vulnerability of equipment during disasters caused by natural hazards (Wang et al 2020). Colarossi et al (2005) have shown that social vulnerability is a consequence of human decision-making and the inability of citizens and political leaders to effectively address multiple stressors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events

Cai

Marson

2021

Nat Hazards

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Because of the recent frequency of climatic hazards and extreme weather events, disasters caused by natural hazards are attracting increased attention from the governments, communities, and the public. Synergistic effects between natural and technological hazards have a significant role in risk assessment. To address these effects, a Natech risk assessment model based on a natural-technological-prone (Natech-prone) facility network is developed to clarify specific scenarios and assess Natech risk. A weighted and directed graph is employed to map out the industrial facilities and other necessary information emerging from the display. It is assumed that the final risk triggered by a natural event is the result of disasters caused by Natech-prone facilities. The decision weights of Natech-prone facilities are heavily dependent on the recognition of the interacting components. A subjective probability is applied to the expected risk utility function to overcome the disadvantage of objective probability, which fails to address the uncertainty found in irrational human factors. Fuzzy measures are used to describe the positive and negative synergistic effects caused by the interaction between Natech-prone facilities. In addition, a Choquet integral is incorporated into the method to deduce the positive and negative synergistic effects in risk assessment. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model, and comparisons and analyses are provided. This paper conceptualizes a specific scenario of a Natech accident. The use of an expected risk utility function for dependent disaster events is a new idea in the field of Natech risk assessment.

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A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis

Cited by 71 publications

References 65 publications

Evaluation of societal trust on multi-hazard early warning (MHEW) mechanism: Sri Lankan context

Evaluation of societal trust on multi-hazard early warning (MHEW) mechanism: Sri Lankan context

Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China

A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events

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