A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

Craig, Michael; Cohen, Stuart; Macknick, Jordan; Draxl, Caroline; Guerra, Omar J.; Sengupta, Manajit; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Hodge, Bri‐Mathias; Brancucci, Carlo

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022

Cited by 90 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Furthermore, emission reduction pledges recently submitted at the 2015 Conference of Parties in Paris would slow, but not stop, future temperature increases (Fawcett et al 2015, Rogelj et al 2016. Temperature increases and other impacts of climate change will have demand-and supply-side effects on the electric power system (Schaeffer et al 2012, Chandramowli and Felder 2014, Bonjean Stanton et al 2016, Craig et al 2018a including on wind and solar resources and generation (Pryor et al 2012, Wild et al 2015, Karnauskas et al 2018, Carreño et al 2018. As wind and solar capacities continue to increase across the United States, climate change impacts on wind and solar generation will increasingly affect power system operations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Craig

Carreño

Rossol

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change will likely impact wind and solar resources. As power systems increasingly shift towards wind and solar power, these resource changes will increasingly impact power system operations. We assess how power system operations will be affected by climate change impacts on wind and solar resources by generating wind and solar generation profiles for a reference period and five climate change projections. We then run a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to dispatch a highrenewable generator fleet with these profiles. For climate change projections, we use 2041-2050 output from five global climate models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for Texas, our study system. All five GCMs indicate increased wind generation potential by 1%-4% under climate change in Texas, while three and two GCMs indicate increased and decreased solar generation potential, respectively, by up to 1%. Uneven generation potential changes across time result in greater changes in dispatched generation by fuel type. Notably, nuclear generation decreases across GCMs by up to 7%, largely in low-demand (winter) months when nuclear plants, which have a high minimum stable load, must reduce their generation to avoid overgeneration. Increased wind and/or solar generation result in reduced system CO 2 emissions and electricity production costs across four of the five GCMs by 8-16 million tons and $216-516 million, or by 2% and 1%, respectively. Future research should assess the atmospheric and climate dynamics that underlie such changes in power system operations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Craig

Carreño

Rossol

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Transmission will play a crucial role in integrating high wind and solar penetrations through connecting generators to loads and through enabling sufficient system flexibility to accommodate their generation (Bloom et al 2016). By limiting transmission capacities (Craig et al 2018), climate change could lead to greater curtailment of wind and solar or inhibit their growth absent additional transmission investment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A growing consensus indicates climate change will likely affect the demand for and supply of electricity (Chandramowli and Felder 2014, Stanton and Dessai 2016, Craig et al 2018. In the United States, climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of peak demand primarily because increased ambient air temperatures under climate change increase air conditioning loads (Dirks et al 2015, Auffhammer et al 2017, Fonseca et al 2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…increased air temperatures (Bartos andChester 2015, Loew 2018). Although less certain than prior impacts, climate change will also likely cause regional increases or decreases in average annual wind and solar generation through altered resources, with larger changes at sub-regional and sub-annual timescales (Wild et al 2015, Craig et al 2018, Carreño et al in review, Karnauskas et al 2018.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Craig

Jaramillo

Hodge

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Power system planning aims at ensuring that sufficient supply-and demand-side assets exist to meet electricity demand at all times. For a Texas electric power system with high wind and solar penetrations, we quantify how climate change will affect supply and demand during three types of high stress periods for the power grid: high demand hours, high net demand hours, and high system ramp hours. We specifically quantify effects on demand, reductions in available thermal capacity (i.e. thermal deratings), wind and solar generation, and net demand. We estimate each using meteorological variables from five climate change projections (2041-2050) assuming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and from a reference period (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005). All five projections indicate that climate change will increase demand by up to 2 GWh during high demand hours (4% of demand in the reference period) and increase net demand by up to 3 GWh during high net demand periods (6% of net demand in the reference period). All five projections also indicate thermal deratings will increase during high demand and net demand periods by up to 2 GWh and high net demand ramps will increase by up to 2 GW. Overall, our results indicate compounding effects of climate change in Texas will necessitate greater investment in peak and flexible capacity. RECEIVED

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“…This population growth will naturally increase the consumption of water, energy, and food [1]. The shift of air temperature due to climate change might increase the requirement of electricity for heating and cooling, while reducing the efficiency of electricity production, especially in thermal power plants [2]. On the other hand, climate change may cause severe droughts that limit water and food availability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water–Energy–Food Nexus Simulation: An Optimization Approach for Resource Security

Wicaksono

Jeong

Kang

2019

Water

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The water–energy–food nexus (WEF nexus) concept is a novel approach to manage limited resources. Since 2011, a number of studies were conducted to develop computer simulation models quantifying the interlinkage among water, energy, and food sectors. Advancing a nationwide WEF nexus simulation model (WEFSiM) previously developed by the authors, this study proposes an optimization module (WEFSiM-opt) to assist stakeholders in making informed decisions concerning sustainable resource management. Both single- and multi-objective optimization modules were developed to maximize the user reliability index (URI) for water, energy, and food sectors by optimizing the priority index and water allocation decisions. In this study, the developed models were implemented in Korea to determine optimal resource allocation and management decisions under a plausible drought scenario. This study suggests that the optimization approach can advance WEF nexus simulation and provide better solutions for managing limited resources. It is anticipated that the proposed WEFSiM-opt can be utilized as a decision support tool for designing resource management plans.

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A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

Cited by 90 publications

References 66 publications

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas

Water–Energy–Food Nexus Simulation: An Optimization Approach for Resource Security

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