A review of the main drivers and variability of Central America’s  Climate and seasonal forecast systems

Maldonado, Tito; Alfaro, Eric J.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.

doi:10.15517/rbt.v66i1.33294

Cited by 58 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…Localized mechanisms affect the magnitude of rainfall across various regions of the Caribbean. Sea breezes due to strong easterly winds by NASH, together with orographic lifting, provide rainfall on the leeward side of Caribbean islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America (Taylor and Alfaro 2005;Giannini et al 2000;Hidalgo et al 2015;Maldonado et al 2018). Diurnal heating accompanied by warm SSTs also enhance convection in the Caribbean (Taylor and Alfaro 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal climatology and dynamical mechanisms of rainfall in the Caribbean

et al. 2019

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The Caribbean is a complex region that heavily relies on its rainfall cycle for its economic and societal needs. This makes the Caribbean especially susceptible to hydro-meteorological disasters (i.e. droughts and floods). Previous studies have investigated the seasonal cycle of rainfall in the Caribbean with monthly or longer resolutions that often mask the seasonal transitions and regional differences of rainfall. This has resulted in inconsistent findings on the seasonal cycle. In addition, the mechanisms that shape the climatological rainfall cycle in the region are not fully understood. To address these problems, this study conducts: (i) a principal component analysis of the annual cycle of precipitation across 38 Caribbean stations using daily observed precipitation data; and, (ii) a moisture budget analysis for the Caribbean, using the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. This study finds that the seasonal cycle of rainfall in the Caribbean hinges on three main facilitators of moisture convergence: the Eastern Pacific ITCZ, the Atlantic ITCZ, and the western flank of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). The Atlantic Warm Pool and Caribbean Low-Level Jet modify the extent of moisture provided by these main facilitators. The expansion and contraction of the western flank of NASH generate the bimodal pattern of the precipitation annual cycle in the northwestern Caribbean, central Caribbean, and with the Eastern Pacific ITCZ the western Caribbean. This study identifies the Atlantic ITCZ as the major source of precipitation for the central and southern Lesser Antilles, which is responsible for their unimodal rainfall pattern. Convergence by sub-monthly transients contributes little to Caribbean rainfall.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal climatology and dynamical mechanisms of rainfall in the Caribbean

et al. 2019

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“…Additionally, the CLLJ is typically described on a monthly or seasonal scale, primarily by using a circulation index based on area-averaged 925-hPa zonal wind over the climatological position of the jet core (e.g., Wang 2007;Whyte et al 2008;Cook and Vizy 2010;Maldonado et al 2018), or alternatively, albeit much less commonly, by Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the 925-hPa (zonal) wind over the Caribbean region (e.g., Whyte et al 2008;Muñoz and Enfield 2011). Common to both methods is the assumption of stationarity of the spatial pattern of the winds during the examined season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sub-monthly evolution of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and its relationship with regional precipitation and atmospheric circulation

García-Martínez

Bollasina

2020

Clim Dyn

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The summer spatial structure and sub-monthly temporal evolution of one of the key dynamical features of Central American climate, the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), is investigated by means of extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOFs). The Caribbean 925-hPa zonal wind from the CFSR reanalysis for the period 1979 -2010 is used for the analysis. This approach reveals new insights into the dynamical processes and spatio-temporal evolution of the CLLJ summer intensification, and through lead and lag linear regressions, significant climate links in the broader Caribbean region are identified. The results show that the CLLJ generates significant precipitation and temperature responses with a distinct temporal evolution over the Caribbean-Atlantic domain to that over the tropical Pacific, which hints at different underlying controlling mechanisms over these two large-scale regions. These anomalies are linked with the mid and upper tropospheric circulation, where a vertical cell over the Caribbean (ascending at the jet exit and subsiding at its entrance) varies in phase with large-scale divergence over the Pacific Ocean. Extratropical hemispheric-wide waves and the weakening of a thermal low in northeast Mexico-central US are identified as potential triggering factors for the CLLJ summer intensification. Two leading modes of tropical variability, El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, are found to modulate the CLLJ by intensifying it and prolonging its life cycle. Details of the underlying mechanisms are provided. These results help to advance the understanding of the processes that modulate local climate variations, which is an important issue in view of the rapid climate change the region is undergoing.

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“…The dominant patterns that drive winds across Mexico have not previously been explored, whereas these are commonly used in meteorological forecasting in other regions of the (e.g., Bloomfield et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2020). The literature relating to the drivers of weather in the region was summarized by Maldonado et al (2018). Often the meteorological processes that influence Mexico are highly separated between the West and East coasts of the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

Thomas

Martínez‐Alvarado

Drew

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this study, we use a k-mean clustering approach to investigate the weather patterns responsible for extreme wind speed events throughout Mexico using 40 years of the ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis. Generally, we find a large geographical split between the weather patterns that generate the strongest winds across the country. The highest wind power production periods therefore occur at different times in different regions across the country. In the South, these are associated with cold surge events, where an anticyclone is present in the Gulf of Mexico resulting in a strong Northerly flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. In the NorthEast , Easterly trade winds are responsible for the strongest wind events, whereas in the NorthWest , it is the proximity of the North Pacific High. However, the weakest winds and lowest power production periods occur at the same times for all stations with the exception of Baja California Sur, meaning that low wind power production may be unavoidable at these times. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is found to influence wind speeds at some locations across Mexico at sub-seasonal timescales. We report that statistically stronger wind speeds are observed during the Summer during El Niño months than during La Niña months for both sites in Chiapas and Oaxaca.

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A review of the main drivers and variability of Central America’s Climate and seasonal forecast systems

Cited by 58 publications

References 82 publications

Seasonal climatology and dynamical mechanisms of rainfall in the Caribbean

Seasonal climatology and dynamical mechanisms of rainfall in the Caribbean

Sub-monthly evolution of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and its relationship with regional precipitation and atmospheric circulation

Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for windpower applications

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