A review of simulated climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Eastern Canada

Abstract

In Eastern Canada, groundwater is the main water supply for most of the rural regions and in many large urban communities. An understanding of the impacts of climate change on this resource is crucial for sustainable water management in this region. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the state of knowledge about possible climate change impacts on groundwater dynamics in Eastern Canada thus providing a clearer understanding of future conditions. Twenty-two studies are reviewed including Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island, to identify the impacts on groundwater recharge and river baseflows. The studies disagree in their estimates of changes in future recharge conditions, and no trend from West to East was revealed. This could be due to the use of different modelling approaches (model type, climate change scenario, future horizon). Nonetheless, more inter-annual variability during the summer and earlier snowmelt periods causing seasonal shifts in the recharge cycle are expected. This review provided new insights that lead to the following recommendations for future studies: 1) use a variety of climate models and emission scenarios; 2) promote the use of integrated models when possible; 3) study long-term climate change impacts on groundwater resources at different scales; 4) simulate the combined effects of climate change and other pressures; and 5) develop models that cover other regions of Eastern Canada as dictated by stakeholders and water managers.

A Climatic Perspective on the Impacts of Global Warming on Water Cycle of Cold Mountainous Catchments in the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

“…Changes in groundwater dynamics is of critical importance not only for understanding regional water cycles and managing local water resources effectively under changing environment [92], but also for understanding and predicting its ecohydrological consequences [93,94]. A decrease in catchment low flows in the YZRB means a wider range and/or variability of streamflow, which could translate into greater uncertainty for water management [16].…”

“…In this study, the flow recession method from climatic perspective is demonstrated to be a reliable for understanding the changes in low flow regimes and groundwater storage in a cold mountainous catchment. This method has several advantages, such as requiring only daily Changes in groundwater dynamics is of critical importance not only for understanding regional water cycles and managing local water resources effectively under changing environment [92], but also for understanding and predicting its ecohydrological consequences [93,94]. A decrease in catchment low flows in the YZRB means a wider range and/or variability of streamflow, which could translate into greater uncertainty for water management [16].…”

Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: Contributions of a water budget approach in southern Quebec

“…This may be due to the different periods of observation (baseflows, groundwater levels) used as a proxy for GWR or as calibration data for GWR simulations (Rivard et al, 2009), or to the different spatial scales involved. The use of different models can also explain the different results obtained under similar conditions (Larocque et al, 2019;Velázquez et al, 2013).…”

Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: contributions of a water budget approach in cold and humid climates

“…Meanwhile, GWR has been estimated in various studies in the cold and humid climate of southern Quebec (Canada), but they did not identify obvious trends (Benoit et al, 2014;Chemingui et al, 2015;Croteau et al, 2010;Gagné et al, 2018;Guay et al, 2013;Larocque and Pharand, 2010;Lavigne et al, 2010;Levison et al, 2014Levison et al, , 2016Nastev et al, 2008;Rivard et al, 2009;Rivera, 2014;Saby et al, 2016). This may be due to the relatively short duration of the time series of the variables used as a proxy for GWR (baseflows, groundwater levels; Rivard et al, 2009) and due to the fact that very different models were used in areas of contrasted sizes (Larocque et al, 2019).…”