A review of retrospective stress-forecasts of earthquakes and eruptions

Crampin, Stuart; Gao, Yuan; Bukits, Julian

doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2015.05.008

Cited by 45 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Although SWS parameters are in a sense a by‐product of the focal mechanism determination, they provide us with important information on continental‐crustal anisotropy, which can be used as a stress indicator (e.g., see the review paper by Crampin et al [] and the reference therein). As a result of the periodicity in NVT occurrence, we can monitor temporal changes in the crustal stress by regarding it as a recurrent source of seismic energy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of focal mechanisms of nonvolcanic tremor using S wave polarization data corrected for the effects of anisotropy

Imanishi

Uchide

Takeda

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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We propose a method to determine the focal mechanisms of nonvolcanic tremors using anisotropy‐corrected S polarizations measured directly from noisy tremor signals. The successful retrieval of polarization angles in noisy signals owes much to the observation that, in general, tremors propagate slowly and therefore do not change their location immediately. This feature of tremors enables us to use longer time windows to compute polarization angles (e.g., 1 min or longer), resulting in a stack of particle motions. We applied the method to a tremor episode that occurred beneath the Kii Peninsula in April 2013. Although the majority of inferred focal mechanisms suggested that tremors manifest shear slip on the plate interface, some events with strike‐slip components were also found to have occurred. The proposed method provides us with a tool for investigating smaller‐scale spatial distributions and temporal variations of focal mechanisms throughout tremor zones.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of focal mechanisms of nonvolcanic tremor using S wave polarization data corrected for the effects of anisotropy

Imanishi

Uchide

Takeda

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…According to the variation characteristics of the stress and strain, the anomalies of H 2 concentration have different characteristics. It exhibits a persistent stress increase most probably caused by a persistent contribution of the different depths and gas caused by the strain release before the natural seismic events (Cicerone et al, 2009;Crampin et al, 2015). Anomalous precursory (anomalous threshold was 0.2 ppm) changes in the diffuse emission of H 2 in hot spring have been observed before some of the microseismicity of the April 11, 2020 Puger earthquakes with distance of epicenter, 6.3 km.…”

Section: Temporal Variations Of Hydrogen Concentrationmentioning

confidence: 97%

Short-Term Seismic Precursor Anomalies of Hydrogen Concentration in Luojishan Hot Spring Bubbling Gas, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2021

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The gas compositions (He, H2, CO2, CH4, Ar and N2) and isotope ratios (3He/4He and δ13C) were yearly investigated from April 2010 to April 2019 at the Luojishan spring located in the proximity of the Zemuhe Fault, eastern Tibetan Plateau. The continuous automatic monitoring of hydrogen concentrations in Luojishan hot spring bubbling gas for the purpose of earthquake prediction requires the discrimination of seismic precursor anomalies. Helium isotope ratios (3He/4He) in the bubbling gas of hot springs varied from 0.05 to 0.18 Ra (Ra = 3He/4He = 1.39 × 10−6 in the air), with a maximum mantle-derived He up to 2.2% of the total He measured in the Luojishan hot spring (assuming R/Ra = 8.0 for mantle). This suggests that Zemuhe Fault might act as a conduit for crustal-derived fluid. N2 concentrations in the majority of the hot spring was ≥80 vol%, and δ13CCO2 values varied from −13.2 to −9.3‰ (vs.PDB). Hydrogen concentration time series display a complex temporal pattern reflecting a wide range of different physical processes. There were short-term (5–60 h) seismic precursor anomalies of hydrogen concentration before natural earthquake. The anthropogenically-induced earthquakes provoke only post-earthquake responses. The concentration of hydrogen in bubbling gas of the Luojishan hot spring is sensitive to increase of stress in the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. Monitoring the hydrogen concentrations with automatic gas stations may be promising tool for unraveling earthquake mechanisms and for predicting earthquakes.

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“…Crack networks and fractures, particularly in the upper continental crust, are also of relevance in directionally controlling seismic velocities. Indications exist that the stress field has an important effect on seismic anisotropy in the crust, because of crack networks orienting parallel to the maximum stress axis [ Crampin et al , ]. Lin and Schmandt [] show significant azimuthal anisotropy across large portions of the upper to middle crust of the United States, where the seismic fast directions correlate with the axis of horizontal maximum stress.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic properties and anisotropy of the continental crust: Predictions based on mineral texture and rock microstructure

Almqvist

Mainprice

2017

Reviews of Geophysics

157

127

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Progress in seismic methodology and ambitious large‐scale seismic projects are enabling high‐resolution imaging of the continental crust. The ability to constrain interpretations of crustal seismic data is based on laboratory measurements on rock samples and calculations of seismic properties. Seismic velocity calculations and their directional dependence are based on the rock microfabric, which consists of mineral aggregate properties including crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), grain shape and distribution, grain boundary distribution, and misorientation within grains. Single‐mineral elastic constants and density are crucial for predicting seismic velocities, preferably at conditions that span the crust. However, high‐temperature and high‐pressure elastic constant data are not as common as those determined at standard temperature and pressure (STP; atmospheric conditions). Continental crust has a very diverse mineral composition; however, a select number of minerals appear to dominate seismic properties because of their high‐volume fraction contribution. Calculations of microfabric‐based seismic properties and anisotropy are performed with averaging methods that in their simplest form takes into account the CPO and modal mineral composition, and corresponding single crystal elastic constants. More complex methods can take into account other microstructural characteristics, including the grain shape and distribution of mineral grains and cracks and pores. Dynamic or active wave propagation schemes have recently been developed, which offer a complementary method to existing static averaging methods generally based on the use of the Christoffel equation. A challenge for the geophysics and rock physics communities is the separation of intrinsic factors affecting seismic anisotropy, due to properties of crystals within a rock and apparent sources due to extrinsic factors like cracks, fractures, and alteration. This is of particular importance when trying to deduce crustal composition and the state of deformation from seismic parameters.

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A review of retrospective stress-forecasts of earthquakes and eruptions

Cited by 45 publications

References 55 publications

Determination of focal mechanisms of nonvolcanic tremor using S wave polarization data corrected for the effects of anisotropy

Determination of focal mechanisms of nonvolcanic tremor using S wave polarization data corrected for the effects of anisotropy

Short-Term Seismic Precursor Anomalies of Hydrogen Concentration in Luojishan Hot Spring Bubbling Gas, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Seismic properties and anisotropy of the continental crust: Predictions based on mineral texture and rock microstructure

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