Abstract:We retrospectively explore the effectiveness of various probabilistic opinion pools against a set of insider threat detection modeling data from a recently completed, multiyear, sponsored research effort. We explored four opinion pools: the linear opinion pool (likely the most popular), the beta-transformed linear opinion pool, the geometric opinion pool, and a multiplicative method based on odds called Bordley’s formula. The data for our study came from our recent work in the inference of insider threats for … Show more
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