A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future

Raible, Christoph C.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ludwig, Patrick; Messmer, Martina

doi:10.1002/wcc.680

Cited by 24 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 210 publications

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“…On the other hand, Luetscher et al (2015) and Lofverstrom (2020) attributed winter wetter conditions over Europe to atmospheric rivers and Rossby-wave breaking, respectively. This together with the southward shift of storm track (found by: Hofer et al, 2012a;Luetscher et al, 2015;Ludwig et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2018;Raible et al, 2020) 3). The precipitation anomaly is dominated by changes in the forcing as well.…”

Section: Comparing Lgmmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…To explain these climate anomalies, studies have suggested that the North Atlantic storm track was shifted southward during the LGM compared to present day (e.g. ;Hofer et al, 2012a;Luetscher et al, 2015;Merz et al, 2015;Ludwig et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2018;Raible et al, 2020). This could explain why the LGM simulations (i.e., LGM LGM ) shows wetter climate over the Iberian Peninsula compared to present-day conditions (i.e., PD PD ) in wintertime.…”

Section: Comparison Of the Simulated Land Surface Conditions To Proxy Reconstructionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe

Velasquez¹,

Kaplan²,

Messmer³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Earth system models show wide disagreement when simulating the climate of the continents at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This disagreement may be related to a variety of factors, including model resolution and an incomplete representation of Earth system processes. To assess the importance of resolution and land-atmosphere feedbacks on the climate of Europe, we performed an iterative, asynchronously coupled land-atmosphere modelling experiment that combined a global climate model, a regional climate model, and a dynamic vegetation model. The regional climate and land cover models were run at high (18 km) resolution over a domain covering the ice-free regions of Europe. Asynchronous coupling between the regional climate model and the vegetation model showed that the land-atmosphere coupling achieves quasi-equilibrium after four iterations. Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. To assess the importance of land cover on the LGM climate of Europe, we performed a sensitivity test where we used LGM climate but present day land cover as boundary conditions. These simulations show that the LGM land-atmosphere feedback leads to colder and drier conditions around the Alps and a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Europe. Even in mid-latitude Europe where the land-atmosphere coupling strength is generally weak, and under glacial conditions with a southward displacement of the storm track and increased importance of the Atlantic, regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.

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Section: Comparing Lgmmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Comparison Of the Simulated Land Surface Conditions To Proxy Reconstructionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe

Velasquez¹,

Kaplan²,

Messmer³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The remaining small differences are interpreted as a part of the internal climate variability and uncertainties predominantly caused by parameterisations in the models, e.g. cloud formation and microphysical processes (Casanueva et al, 2016;Rajczak and Schär, 2017;Shrestha et al, 2017;Knist et al, 2018;Yang et al, 2019).…”

Section: Results Of the Iterative Asynchronous Couplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Earth system models show wide disagreement when simulating the climate of the continents at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This disagreement may be related to a variety of factors, including model resolution and an incomplete representation of Earth system processes. To assess the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks on the climate of Europe, we performed an iterative asynchronously coupled land–atmosphere modelling experiment that combined a global climate model, a regional climate model, and a dynamic vegetation model. The regional climate and land cover models were run at high (18 km) resolution over a domain covering the ice-free regions of Europe. Asynchronous coupling between the regional climate model and the vegetation model showed that the land–atmosphere coupling achieves quasi-equilibrium after four iterations. Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. To assess the importance of land cover on the LGM climate of Europe, we performed a sensitivity simulation where we used LGM climate but present-day (PD) land cover. Using LGM climate and land cover leads to colder and drier summer conditions around the Alps and warmer and drier climate in southeastern Europe compared to LGM climate determined by PD land cover. This finding demonstrates that LGM land cover plays an important role in regulating the regional climate. Therefore, realistic glacial land cover estimates are needed to accurately simulate regional glacial climate states in areas with interplays between complex topography, large ice sheets, and diverse land cover, as observed in Europe.

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“…To explain these changes, global modelling studies suggested a southward shift of the North Atlantic storm track during the LGM compared to PD (e.g. Hofer et al, 2012a;Luetscher et al, 2015;Merz et al, 2015;Raible et al, 2020) and a change in the weather patterns (e.g. Hofer et al, 2012b;Ludwig et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, regional climate modelling is beneficial for answering paleoclimate research questions (Ludwig et al, 2019). Pinto and Ludwig (2020) and Raible et al (2020) showed that extratropical cyclones are characterised by enhanced wind speeds over Europe during the LGM compared to PD, which helps to understand the reallocation and build-up of thick loess deposits in Europe (e.g. Römer et al, 2016;Krauß et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

The Role of Ice-Sheet Topography in the Alpine Hydro-Climate at Glacial Times

Velasquez

Messmer

Raible

2021

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Abstract. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. Bridging the scale gap by using a chain of global and regional climate models, we perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS4). In winter, we find wetter conditions in the southern part of the Alps during LGM compared to present day, to which dynamical processes, i.e., changes in the wind speed and direction, substantially contribute. During summer, we find the expected drier conditions in most of the Alpine region during LGM, as thermodynamics suggests drier conditions under lower temperatures. The MIS4 climate shows enhanced winter precipitation compared to the LGM, which is explain by its warmer climate compared to the LGM – thus, again explained by thermodynamics. The sensitivity simulations of the northern hemispheric ice-sheet changes show that an increase of the ice-sheet thickness leads to a significant intensification of glacial Alpine hydro-climate conditions, which is mainly explained by dynamical processes. Changing only the Fennoscandian ice sheet is less influential on the Alpine precipitation, whereas modifications in the local Alpine ice-sheet topography significantly alter the Alpine precipitation, in particular we find a reduction of summer precipitation at the southern face of the Alps when lowering the Alpine ice sheet. The findings demonstrate that the northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography play an important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and thus permits a better understanding of the precipitation patterns in the complex Alpine terrain at glacial times.

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A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future

Cited by 24 publications

References 210 publications

The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe

The role of land cover on the climate of glacial Europe

The role of land cover in the climate of glacial Europe

The Role of Ice-Sheet Topography in the Alpine Hydro-Climate at Glacial Times

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