A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

Lin, Vera Shanshan; Song, Haiyan

doi:10.1080/13683500.2014.967187

Cited by 62 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…For example, some authors argue that econometric forecasting techniques fail to produce realistic forecasts and that qualitative indicators can enable more accurate forecasting. Future studies pertaining to multivariate tourism demand forecasting in Europe should consider including qualitative indicators, such as those which can be derived from a Delphi panel of tourism experts (see for example, Lin and Song (2015)) and evaluate whether these forecasts can outperform ARIMA, TBATS and SSA-R forecasts for European tourism demand. 3 0.14 * , † 0.25 * , † 0.26 * , † 0.21 * , † 0.33 * , † 0.41 * , † 0.32 * , † 0.22 * , † 0.14 * , † 0.56 * , † 6 0.15 * , † 0.26 * , † 0.28 * , † 0.24 * , † 0.35 * , † 0.34 * , † 0.30 * , † 0.25 * , † 0.14 * , † 0.53 * , † 12 0.10 * , † 0.37 * , † 0.15 * , † 0.34 * , † 0.40 * , † 0.46 * , † 0.27 * , † 0.33 * , † 0.14 * , † 0.52 * , † 24 0.10 * , † 0.25 * , † 0.21 * , † 0.24 * , † 0.43 * , † 0.49 * , † 0.39 * , † 0.29 * , † 0.14 * , † 0.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

Hassani¹,

Silva

Antonakakis

et al. 2017

Annals of Tourism Research

122

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This paper evaluates the use of several parametric and nonparametric forecasting techniques for predicting tourism demand in selected European countries. We find that no single model can provide the best forecasts for any of the countries in the short-, medium-and long-run. The results, which are tested for statistical significance, enable forecasters to choose the most suitable model (from those evaluated here) based on the country and horizon for forecasting tourism demand. Should a single model be of interest, then, across all selected countries and horizons the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis model is found to be the most efficient based on lowest overall forecasting error. Neural Networks and ARFIMA are found to be the worst performing models.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

Hassani¹,

Silva

Antonakakis

et al. 2017

Annals of Tourism Research

122

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“…The single most important facet to the creation of any standard is the act of achieving consensus. This is because, in order to be effective, standards rely on widespread recognition and acceptance within the fields in which they are applied (Ace, 2018;Hsu & Sandford, 2007;Lin & Song, 2012.…”

Section: A Case For a Delphi Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In academia, the Delphi technique is widely used for achieving consensus within any given domain of expertise (Hsu & Sandford, 2007;Lin & Song, 2014). The technique's qualities allow it to be applied as a first step to dealing with seemingly complex problems in various contexts (Green, Hunter, & Moore, 1990).…”

Section: A Case For a Delphi Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the social impacts of events: in search of unified indicators for effective policymaking

Wallstam

İoannides

Pettersson

2018

Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events

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Policymakers in destinations regularly struggle to identify effective ways to evaluate the impacts of planned events. Especially problematic is the relative lack of knowledge about the social impacts that planned events incur. This challenge is largely attributable to the historic focus on economic impacts. However, this trend is shifting along with the realization that events often fail to deliver on promised economic trickle-down effects. This paper addresses the absence of a unified view on social impacts, and how this impedes destinations that aspire to work strategically with planned events. Policymakers at the destination level currently lack the common language needed to effectively measure these impacts. We use a Delphi approach to pinpoint social impact indicators that are of use in policy settings. The results show six indicators that meet the study criteria, thereby contributing towards a unified set of indicators for dealing with strategic event management at the destination level.

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“…The initial stage of a Delphi study must ensure that there is a real research question(s) with valid theme(s) and identify experts for the core round. The research focus was identified when the researcher was studying for the Wine and Spirit Education Trust [1] (WSET) Diploma. She was the only non-trade Consulting the oracle?…”

Section: Case One: Developing a Semi-structured Interview Schedule Fomentioning

confidence: 99%

Consulting the oracle?

Sobaih

Ritchie

Jones

2012

Int J Contemp Hospitality Mngt

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If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -The Delphi technique is used to achieve consensus among experts and/or gain judgment on complex matters. This paper aims to discuss the classical Delphi and its advantages and disadvantages in qualitative research, particularly in hospitality. Design/methodology/approach -The classical Delphi is characterized by the involvement of experts and its iterative nature. In an industry with high turnover and limited pools of specialist expertise this can lead to problems of attrition and management of the process. The paper presents two qualitative hospitality research case studies in which the classical Delphi is successfully modified to overcome its limitations. Findings -Identifying potential problems early in the research process enables critical design decisions to be made. Case one used a parallel expert group with similar experience to develop a research instrument for a limited number of prestigious experts well-acquainted with one another who might have reached specious consensus through channels not accessible to the researcher. Case two enabled the addition of new experts to an expert panel to overcome attrition in successive Delphi rounds. Practical implications -Despite its growing popularity in social science, Delphi has rarely been used in qualitative hospitality research. The modifications suggested in this paper can enhance the robustness of the classical Delphi technique for qualitative hospitality research. Originality/value -The paper shows how the classical Delphi technique can be successfully modified for use in qualitative hospitality research.

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A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

Cited by 62 publications

References 68 publications

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

Evaluating the social impacts of events: in search of unified indicators for effective policymaking

Consulting the oracle?

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