A review of advances in flash flood forecasting

Hapuarachchi, H. A. P.; Wang, QJ; Pagano, T. S.

doi:10.1002/hyp.8040

Cited by 410 publications

(324 citation statements)

References 101 publications

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“…Firstly, this type of coupling is more flexible: the models can be easily changed, if it is needed (Whiteaker et al, 2006). This fact is important, because there is still no clear consensus on a preferred approach to hydrologic modelling of flash floods, as stated by Hapuarachchi et al (2011). Thus, if a more relevant hydrologic model is developed in the coming years, it can be easily integrated into the coupling, simply by replacing the former model.…”

Section: The Choice Of the Type Of Couplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appropriate for the fast floods of the Gardon River basin (France)

Laganier¹,

Ayral²,

Salze³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Mediterranean catchments are regularly affected by fast and flash floods. Numerous hydrologic models have been developed, and allow modelling of these floods. However, these approaches often concern average-size basins of a few hundred km 2 . At larger scales (> 1000 km 2 ), coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appears to be an adapted solution. This study has as its first objective the evaluation of the performances of a coupling of models for flood hydrograph modelling. Secondly, the coupling results are compared with those of other modelling options. The aim of these comparisons is to clear up the following points. (1) Is a simplified routing model (lag and route) as efficient as a full hydraulic model for the modelling of hydrographs, in the intermediary downstream part of the stream? (2) Is adding lateral inflows necessary for all studied events? (3) What is the impact of the qualities of upstream hydrologic modelling feeding the coupling? The coupling combines the SCS-LR (Soil Conservation Service-lag-and-route) hydrologic model of the ATHYS platform and the MASCARET 1-D hydraulic model based on full Saint-Venant equations. It is applied to the Gardon River basin (2040 km 2 ) in the south of France. For the seven studied events, the results of the coupling are satisfactory, the calculated Nash indexes varying between 0.61 and 0.97. The comparisons with the other modelling options show the important role of the spatial distribution of rains during events: when rains are centered on the intermediary downstream part of the catchment, adding lateral inflows is necessary; when rains are more important in the upstream part, the quality of the hydrologic modelling upstream of the coupling has a strong impact. Furthermore, the used coupling of models seems well adapted for water rising and flooded area forecasting. The future developments of the tool will concentrate on this point.

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Section: The Choice Of the Type Of Couplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous adapted hydrologic models were proposed, but there is not, at the moment, a clear consensus as to a preferential approach (Hapuarachchi et al, 2011). TOPMODEL and its derivatives Vincendon et al, 2010), or else the models based on the SCS Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appropriate for the fast floods of the Gardon River basin (France)

Laganier¹,

Ayral²,

Salze³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Additional physical properties, such as the fraction of impervious area, land uses and soil types, together with time-varying states like soil moisture, will also help to modulate the flash flood potential of heavy rainfall (Hapuarachchi et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The flow peaks are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to mitigate flood damage (Borga et al, 2007;Borga et al, 2008). This hydrological response leads to the occurrence of a typology of floods known as flash floods because of their rapid onset, i.e., within six hours of rainfall (Ogden et al, 2000;Delrieu et al, 2005;Marchi et al, 2010;Hapuarachchi et al, 2011;Naulin et al, 2013;Ballesteros-Canovas et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management

Pozo

Amérigo

Díez‐Herrero

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

129

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Please cite this article as: Bodoque, J.M., Amerigo, M., Díez-Herrero, A., García, J.A., Cortés, B., BallesterosCánovas, J.A., Olcina, J., Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management, Journal of Hydrology (2016), doi: http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.005 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. AbstractIn urban areas prone to flash floods, characterization of social resilience is critical to guarantee the success of emergency management plans. In this study, we present the methodological approach that led to the submission and subsequent approval of the Civil Protection Plan of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which the first phase was to analyse flood hazard by combining the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Iber 2D hydrodynamic model. We then analysed social vulnerability and designed measures to put into practice within the framework of the Civil Protection Plan. At a later phase, we assessed citizens' flash-flood risk perception and level of awareness regarding some key variables of the Civil Protection Plan. To this end, 254 adults representing roughly 12% of the population census were interviewed. Responses were analysed descriptively, comparing awareness regarding preparedness and response actions with the corresponding information 2 and behaviours previously defined in the Civil Protection Plan. In addition, we carried out a latent class cluster analysis aimed at identifying the different groups present among the interviewees. Our results showed that risk perception is low. Specifically, 60.8% of the interviewees showed low risk perception and low awareness (cluster 1);24.4% had high risk perception and low awareness (cluster 2), while the remaining 14.8% presented high long-term risk perception and high awareness (cluster 3).These findings suggest the need for integrating these key variables of social risk perception and local tailored information in emergency management plans, especially in urban areas prone to flash-floods where response times are limited.

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“…To judge flash flood occurrence, there are three methods: flash flood susceptibility assessment, the flow comparison method and the rainfall comparison method (Hapuarachchi et al, 2011). Flash flood susceptibility assessment can be considered a useful first step in determining the contributing factors to the flash flood vulnerability (possibility of flash flood occurrence and degree of danger) of a catchment using limited data (Collier and Fox, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a precipitation–area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

Bae

Lee

Moon

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P -A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P -A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P -A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h −1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km 2 , respectively. The proposed P -A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

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A review of advances in flash flood forecasting

Cited by 410 publications

References 101 publications

A coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appropriate for the fast floods of the Gardon River basin (France)

A coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models appropriate for the fast floods of the Gardon River basin (France)

Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management

Development of a precipitation–area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

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