A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice

Agarwal, Chetan; Green, Glen M.; Grove, J. Morgan; Evans, Tom; Schweik, Charles M.

doi:10.2737/ne-gtr-297

Cited by 413 publications

(312 citation statements)

References 166 publications

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“…Numerous applications are discussed in for example , Agarwal et al (2002) and Koomen et al (2007). Future land use is an especially important theme in studies related to the preparation and evaluation of largescale spatial plans and strategies.…”

Section: Land-use Modelling For Policy Supportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use

Eck¹,

Koomen

2007

Ann Reg Sci

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This paper presents two sets of functional indicators that were implemented and tested for the assessment of spatial aspects of future land-use configurations as simulated by a land-use model. This is potentially useful for the ex-ante evaluation of spatial planning policies. The indicators were applied in a Dutch case study and relate to two important themes in Dutch spatial planning: compact urbanisation and mixing of land uses. After a short introduction of these themes, the sets of indicators are presented which are used for their evaluation. These indicators are applied to simulations based on two scenarios for land-use development in the Netherlands up to 2030. After a discussion of the results we conclude that the combined application of land-use models and indicators produces new and potentially useful information for policy makers, although both the model and the associated indicators are still in a state of development. JEL Classification

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Section: Land-use Modelling For Policy Supportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use

Eck¹,

Koomen

2007

Ann Reg Sci

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“…Agriculture also acts as a "bank" for water rights, and since farming consumes more water than residential land use, it ensures a water supply for future development. Nearly all land use change models include population dynamics as population growth typically leads to land conversion (Agarwal et al 2001). In addition to growth rates, population characteristics shape land use change.…”

Section: Socio-politicaleconomic Template Pulsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land fragmentation under rapid urbanization: A cross-site analysis of Southwestern cities

et al. 2011

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Explosive population growth and increasing demand for rural homes and lifestyles fueled exurbanization and urbanization in the western USA over the past decades. Using National Land Cover Data we analyzed land fragmentation trends from 1992 to 2001 in five southwestern cities associated with Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites. We observed two general fragmentation trends: expansion of the urbanized area leading to Urban Ecosyst (2011) fragmentation in the exurban and peri-urban regions and decreased fragmentation associated with infill in the previously developed urban areas. We identified three fragmentation patterns, riparian, polycentric, and monocentric, that reflect the recent western experience with growth and urbanization. From the literature and local expert opinion, we identified five relevant drivers -water provisioning, population dynamics, transportation, topography, and institutions -that shape land use decision-making and fragmentation in the southwest. In order to assess the relative importance of each driver on urbanization, we linked historical site-specific driver information obtained through literature reviews and archival analyses to the observed fragmentation patterns. Our work highlights the importance of understanding land use decision-making drivers in concert and throughout time, as historic decisions leave legacies on landscapes that continue to affect land form and function, a process often forgotten in a region and era of blinding change.

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“…Several previous studies examined the relationship between spatial distribution of land use and water quality at watershed level (Scott 1992;Agarwal et al 2000;Forney et al 2001;Tong and Chen 2002;Tang et al 2005;Demirci and Mcadams 2006;Fachrul and Hendrawan 2007). These studies pointed out that water quality deterioration was due to point discharges of industry or residential settlements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of basin activities and land use on water quality trends in Tahtali Basin, Turkey

Elçi

Selçuk²

2012

Environ Earth Sci

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Bi-weekly water quality data from seven monitoring stations located within Tahtali Watershed, İzmir, Turkey and digital land use/land cover data of the same watershed are analyzed in this study. To examine the changes in land use associated with urbanization, the satellite images of the main pool of the Tahtali reservoir prior to filling and subsequent to filling, respectively, are analyzed. Aerial photos of the basin taken in 1995 (October) are compared with images taken in 2005 (November) from the IKONOS satellite through use of several GIS techniques. New residential buildings, greenhouses, and industrial buildings are presented in separate layers, and changes in basin activities are quantified. The effects of urbanization on the water quality are investigated through statistical analysis. The seasonal Kendall test is applied to the water quality parameters monitored bi-weekly at seven stations within the basin for the duration 1997-2005. There was no trend in phosphorus, but there was a negative trend in boron and nitrate and a positive trend in the parameters of biological oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). The improvement in nitrate concentrations is attributed to the new regulations on the use of fertilizers in greenhouses. However, increase of BOD and COD concentrations is related to the growing settlement areas and industrial zones, which point to the insufficient wastewater treatment within the basin. Soil erosion within the basin is also quantified by the universal soil loss equation using available maps. Estimated total soil loss rate increased about 2.5 times that of 1995 when the changed land use composition in 2005 is considered in the calculations.

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A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice

Cited by 413 publications

References 166 publications

Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use

Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use

Land fragmentation under rapid urbanization: A cross-site analysis of Southwestern cities

Effects of basin activities and land use on water quality trends in Tahtali Basin, Turkey

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