A Retrospective and Time Series Study of Cases of Tuberculosis: Evidence of Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital Nigeria

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of mortality in developing countries in world. It is an airborne disease spread through inhaling. This study investigated the cases of tuberculosis at Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital (NAUTH) Nigeria. The TB data used in this study are secondary data sourced from NAUTH tuberculosis register from January 2005 to December 2021. This study is a retrospective cohort and time series analysis of all the cases of tuberculosis diagnosed and confirmed. The forecast methods used in this study are that of Box-Jenkins approach and Holt-Winters. Out of 395070 presumptive cases, 52311 (11.7%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis, and male had the highest rate. The age group that was most affected was the group 35-44 (24.68%). 8.4% of the tuberculosis diagnosed tested positive. ARIMA (0,0,1) (2,0,1) [12] was selected as the best model, used in forecasting tuberculosis cases for the next four years. Tuberculosis cases predicted showed that for the next four years, there will be a slight decrease.