A Retrospective and Prospective Examination of the 1960s U.S. Northeast Drought

Abstract

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021-2027), middle (2041-2047) and late (2091-2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend towards wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the U.S. During the Last Century

“…Our drought trend results for 1921-2020 are generally consistent with McCabe et al (2017), who found that drought frequency has mostly declined across CONUS from 1901 to 2014. Decreases in drought duration and deficit in the northeastern CONUS during the 1951-2020 period overlap with the hydrologic step change observed around 1970 (McCabe & Wolock, 2002) and are likely due to dry conditions during the early parts of this period, such as the 1960s drought (Xue & Ullrich, 2021).…”

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

“…For example, the 1930s “dust bowl” drought (drought 1) and the 1950s drought (drought 2) are two of the most well‐known and impactful droughts in the CONUS during the 20th century (Heim, 2017). The December 1962 through October 1968 drought (drought 3) was the most severe drought in the northeastern CONUS in the past century (Xue and Ullrich, 2021). The 1960s drought was associated with low streamflow across much of the northeastern CONUS and includes the drought of record in the Delaware River basin which supplies New York City and Philadelphia with drinking water (Kauffman and Vonck, 2011; Delaware River Basin Commission, 2019).…”

Water Stress Influences Phytoestrogen Levels in Red Clover (Trifolium pratense) but Not Kura Clover (T. ambiguum)

“…In the Northeast US and elsewhere, climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in the form of flood and waterlogging events and intense short-and mediumduration droughts. 16,17 Therefore, understanding how environmental stressors associated with climate change may affect the range of variation in phytoestrogen concentrations in red clover has important implications for animal agriculture and human health.…”

“…Phytoestrogens are thought to play a role in plant defense, serving to protect plants from environmental stress as well as perform roles in plant–microbe signaling and a range of other physiological functions. , Given their potential responsiveness to environmental variation, it is conceivable that the phytoestrogen concentrations in forage legumes such as red clover may be mediated by changes in environmental conditions associated with climate change. In the Northeast US and elsewhere, climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in the form of flood and waterlogging events and intense short- and medium-duration droughts. , Therefore, understanding how environmental stressors associated with climate change may affect the range of variation in phytoestrogen concentrations in red clover has important implications for animal agriculture and human health.…”