A reservoir flood forecasting and control system for China / Un système chinois de prévision et de contrôle de crue en barrage

Guo, Shenglian; Zhang, Honggang; Chen, Hua; Peng, Danling; Liu, Pan; Bo, Ping

doi:10.1623/hysj.49.6.959.55728

Cited by 70 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The rapid population and economic growth in recent decades, along with climate change and variability, impose more stress on water resources and cascade reservoir systems. Reservoirs, as one of the most important components of the hydrologic system, play a significant role as water supply by altering natural streamflow across space and time [1,2], while mitigating the effect of extreme the GloFAS-Seasonal forecasting system and explains different measures to evaluate the skill of the forecast for streamflow conditions. We demonstrate and discuss the results for the streamflow thresholds and performance of the GloFAS-Seasonal forecast in Section 4.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of GloFAS-Seasonal Forecasts for Cascade Reservoir Impoundment Operation in the Upper Yangtze River

Chen

Guo

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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Standard impoundment operation rules (SIOR) are pre-defined guidelines for refilling reservoirs before the end of the wet season. The advancement and availability of the seasonal flow forecasts provide the opportunity for reservoir operators to use flexible and early impoundment operation rules (EIOR). These flexible impoundment rules can significantly improve water conservation, particularly during dry years. In this study, we investigate the potential application of seasonal streamflow forecasts for employing EIOR in the upper Yangtze River basin. We first define thresholds to determine the streamflow condition in September, which is an important period for decision-making in the basin, and then select the most suitable impoundment operation rules accordingly. The thresholds are used in a simulation-optimization model to evaluate different scenarios for EIOR and SIOR by multiple objectives. We measure the skill of the GloFAS-Seasonal forecast, an operational global seasonal river flow forecasting system, to predict streamflow condition according to the selected thresholds. The results show that: (1) the 20th and 30th percentiles of the historical September flow are suitable thresholds for evaluating the possibility of employing EIOR;(2) compared to climatological forecasts, GloFAS-Seasonal forecasts are skillful for predicting the streamflow condition according to the selected 20th and 30th percentile thresholds; and (3) during dry years, EIOR could improve the fullness storage rate by 5.63% and the annual average hydropower generation by 4.02%, without increasing the risk of flooding. GloFAS-Seasonal forecasts and early reservoir impoundment have the potential to enhance hydropower generation and water utilization. events [3,4]. Conventionally, during wet season, reservoir operators release water preferentially for flood control [5,6] while storing water before the end of wet season to meet the demand for hydropower generation, navigation, and water supply. For full replenishment of storage, reservoir operators and academic researchers have highlighted the importance of reservoir impoundment operation and impoundment rules in several studies [7][8][9][10].Reservoir operation rules are often used to provide guidelines for reservoir operators to determine the amount of controlled discharge. Among these rules, the reservoir impoundment rules are designed to refill the reservoir and raise the storage water level. The New York City rule [11] is among the early guidelines for reservoir impoundment and provides the probability of spills rather than the amount of spill to minimize the water shortage [12]. Since the development of the New York City rule, different types of reservoir impoundment operation rules have been developed and employed for various reservoir systems [7,[13][14][15][16][17]. In the Yangtze River, which is one of the largest rivers in the world by discharge volume with huge reservoir storage capacity, the impoundment operation is complex and challenging. Water managers and stakeholders employ prede...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of GloFAS-Seasonal Forecasts for Cascade Reservoir Impoundment Operation in the Upper Yangtze River

Chen

Guo

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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“…With the variations of spatial-temporal distributions of runoff due in part to climate change, small reservoirs for water detention will continue to serve multipurpose uses including water supply, flood control, hydropower generation, navigation and recreation [1][2][3]. In this study, small-reservoirs are defined as those reservoirs storing less than one-million cubic meters of water, and are often used to capture and retain runoff water in the form of shallow lakes, wetlands or ephemeral ponds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Multiresolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from Real-Time Kinematic GPS and Ancillary Data for Reservoir Storage Capacity Estimation

Ouma

2016

Hydrology

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This study presents the estimation of reservoir storage capacity using multiresolution Real-Time Kinematic Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS) DEM, in comparison with ASTER and contour-derived DEM. Through RMSE comparisons of the elevation point uncertainty and error analysis, the results shows that the RTK-GPS DEM gave the best results for the reservoir capacity-area power curve estimation, defined by a convex slope with an exponential deterministic relationship given by V " 0.09ˆA 1.435 . The results further show the existence an empirical relationship between the reservoir volume certainty and the GPS point density d i as V e " cˆd ρ i . This relationship is dependent on the reservoir terrain, slope and surface area. Validation of the results with in situ data showed the differences between the simulated and observed storage volumes was less than +10%, and using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency on the storage volumes, an average efficiency of +0.7 on the monthly observed and simulated reservoir storage volume was observed.

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“…While allowing for this error tolerance incurs minor hydropower energy losses (say, a mean of 1.17% and maximum of 2.58%), it also provides us with a much greater range of choices. On the basis of a number of reservoir operation studies in China, Guo et al [2004] found that optimal reservoir operation could increase hydroelectricity by 3%-10%. Thus, an NOSP of " ¼ 0:1%, which increases hydroelectricity for the case study of TGR by about 2%-7%, is comparable to the optimal solution.…”

Section: Implications For Improving the Tgr Operationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deriving multiple near‐optimal solutions to deterministic reservoir operation problems

Liu

Cai

Guo

2011

Water Resources Research

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[1] Even deterministic reservoir operation problems with a single objective function may have multiple near-optimal solutions (MNOS) whose objective values are equal or sufficiently close to the optimum. MNOS is valuable for practical reservoir operation decisions because having a set of alternatives from which to choose allows reservoir operators to explore multiple options whereas the traditional algorithm that produces a single optimum does not offer them this flexibility. This paper presents three methods: the near-shortest paths (NSP) method, the genetic algorithm (GA) method, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to explore the MNOS. These methods, all of which require a long computation time, find MNOS using different approaches. To reduce the computation time, a narrower subspace, namely a near-optimal space (NOSP, described by the maximum and minimum bounds of MNOS) is derived. By confining the MNOS search within the NOSP, the computation time of the three methods is reduced. The proposed methods are validated with a test function before they are examined with case studies of both a single reservoir (the Three Gorges Reservoir in China) and a multireservoir system (the Qing River Cascade Reservoirs in China). It is found that MNOS exists for the deterministic reservoir operation problems. When comparing the three methods, the NSP method is unsuitable for large-scale problems but provides a benchmark to which solutions of small-and medium-scale problems can be compared. The GA method can produce some MNOS but is not very efficient in terms of the computation time. Finally, the MCMC method performs best in terms of goodness-of-fit to the benchmark and computation time, since it yields a wide variety of MNOS based on all retained intermediate results as potential MNOS. Two case studies demonstrate that the MNOS identified in this study are useful for real-world reservoir operation, such as the identification of important operation time periods and tradeoffs among objectives in multipurpose reservoirs.Citation: Liu, P., X. Cai, and S. Guo (2011), Deriving multiple near-optimal solutions to deterministic reservoir operation problems, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08506,

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A reservoir flood forecasting and control system for China / Un système chinois de prévision et de contrôle de crue en barrage

Cited by 70 publications

References 12 publications

Evaluation of GloFAS-Seasonal Forecasts for Cascade Reservoir Impoundment Operation in the Upper Yangtze River

Evaluation of GloFAS-Seasonal Forecasts for Cascade Reservoir Impoundment Operation in the Upper Yangtze River

Evaluation of Multiresolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from Real-Time Kinematic GPS and Ancillary Data for Reservoir Storage Capacity Estimation

Deriving multiple near‐optimal solutions to deterministic reservoir operation problems

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