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Facing the escalating effects of climate change, it is critical to improve the prediction and understanding of the hurricane evacuation decisions made by households in order to enhance emergency management. Current studies in this area often have relied on psychology-driven linear models, which frequently exhibited limitations in practice. The present study proposed a novel interpretable machine learning approach to predict household-level evacuation decisions by leveraging easily accessible demographic and resource-related predictors, compared to existing models that mainly rely on psychological factors. An enhanced logistic regression model (that is, an interpretable machine learning approach) was developed for accurate predictions by automatically accounting for nonlinearities and interactions (that is, univariate and bivariate threshold effects). Specifically, nonlinearity and interaction detection were enabled by low-depth decision trees, which offer transparent model structure and robustness. A survey dataset collected in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, two of the most intense tropical storms of the last two decades, was employed to test the new methodology. The findings show that, when predicting the households’ evacuation decisions, the enhanced logistic regression model outperformed previous linear models in terms of both model fit and predictive capability. This outcome suggests that our proposed methodology could provide a new tool and framework for emergency management authorities to improve the prediction of evacuation traffic demands in a timely and accurate manner.
Facing the escalating effects of climate change, it is critical to improve the prediction and understanding of the hurricane evacuation decisions made by households in order to enhance emergency management. Current studies in this area often have relied on psychology-driven linear models, which frequently exhibited limitations in practice. The present study proposed a novel interpretable machine learning approach to predict household-level evacuation decisions by leveraging easily accessible demographic and resource-related predictors, compared to existing models that mainly rely on psychological factors. An enhanced logistic regression model (that is, an interpretable machine learning approach) was developed for accurate predictions by automatically accounting for nonlinearities and interactions (that is, univariate and bivariate threshold effects). Specifically, nonlinearity and interaction detection were enabled by low-depth decision trees, which offer transparent model structure and robustness. A survey dataset collected in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, two of the most intense tropical storms of the last two decades, was employed to test the new methodology. The findings show that, when predicting the households’ evacuation decisions, the enhanced logistic regression model outperformed previous linear models in terms of both model fit and predictive capability. This outcome suggests that our proposed methodology could provide a new tool and framework for emergency management authorities to improve the prediction of evacuation traffic demands in a timely and accurate manner.
The challenge of spatial resource allocation is pervasive across various domains such as transportation, industry, and daily life. As the scale of real-world issues continues to expand and demands for real-time solutions increase, traditional algorithms face significant computational pressures, struggling to achieve optimal efficiency and real-time capabilities. In recent years, with the escalating computational power of computers, the remarkable achievements of reinforcement learning in domains like Go and robotics have demonstrated its robust learning and sequential decision-making capabilities. Given these advancements, there has been a surge in novel methods employing reinforcement learning to tackle spatial resource allocation problems. These methods exhibit advantages such as rapid solution convergence and strong model generalization abilities, offering a new perspective on resolving spatial resource allocation problems. Despite the progress, reinforcement learning still faces hurdles when it comes to spatial resource allocation. There remains a gap in its ability to fully grasp the diversity and intricacy of real-world resources. The environmental models used in reinforcement learning may not always capture the spatial dynamics accurately. Moreover, in situations laden with strict and numerous constraints, reinforcement learning can sometimes fall short in offering feasible strategies. Consequently, this paper is dedicated to summarizing and reviewing current theoretical approaches and practical research that utilize reinforcement learning to address issues pertaining to spatial resource allocation. In addition, the paper accentuates several unresolved challenges that urgently necessitate future focus and exploration within this realm and proposes viable approaches for these challenges. This research furnishes valuable insights that may assist scholars in gaining a more nuanced understanding of the problems, opportunities, and potential directions concerning the application of reinforcement learning in spatial resource allocation.
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