A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luís; Quiroga, Sonia; Moneo, Marta

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0338-8

Cited by 138 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…According to previous literature, the losses produced by drought conditions are crop-specific and they depend on location. The same can be shown in this analysis (Parry et al, 2004;Iglesias et al, 2012a;Lobell et al, 2008). The climate-change-induced and drought-induced losses in physical yields (t h −1 ) have been largely analysed in the literature, and they are expected to be very high for some of the crops analysed here, especially in the southern and eastern regions in Spain.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…We have found that the differences in terms of income distribution are not as severe as those reported in studies that analyse solely physical impacts , which suggests an important role of market prices in stabilizing farmers' outcomes. Although most of the studies project important crop production to be reduced due to climate change in Spain (Iglesias et al, 2012a;López-Gunn et al, 2012), our results could imply rural incomes not suffering the most through agriculture losses but consumers' welfare being the most greatly affected. We have not analysed consumers' welfare here directly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…a more stringent target is foreseen in CO 2 concentration reduction in 2100), the lower the cost of adaptation to climate change will be (although, of course, some unavoidable effects remain independent of mitigation efforts). The source of climate data is the University of East Anglia and these data have been fully described in Iglesias et al (2012a). A1B represents a balanced emphasis on all energy sources with CO 2 level in 2080 of about 850 ppm.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenarios and Drought In The Mediterraneanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…E1 is the so-called global "2 • C stabilization" scenario that is characterized by atmospheric concentrations of 498 ppm CO 2 in the 2080s. These last-generation socio-economic scenarios were not developed in the PRUDENCE project but new climate projections have been developed under the Climate Cost project Iglesias et al, 2012a). To address uncertainty we use several climate models driven by these Representative Concentration Pathways: A1B: DMIEH5-4; A1B:HADGEM-1 and the E1: DMICM3-1; E1: DMICM3-2; E1: HADGEM2-1.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenarios and Drought In The Mediterraneanmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Quiroga¹,

Suárez²

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural incomes in Spanish rural areas. Present research has focused on the effects of these extreme climatological events through response functions, considering effects on crop productivity and average incomes. Among the impacts of droughts, we focused on potential effects on income distribution. The study of the effects on abnormally dry periods is therefore needed in order to perform an analysis of diverse social aspects in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a measure of the decomposition of inequality to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. Certain adaptation measures may require a better understanding of risks by the public to achieve general acceptance. We provide empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two impacts considered: farms' average income and income distribution. Our estimates consider crop production response to both biophysical and socioeconomic aspects to analyse long-term implications on competitiveness and disparities. As for the results, we find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analysed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Climate Change Scenarios and Drought In The Mediterraneanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Scenarios and Drought In The Mediterraneanmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Quiroga¹,

Suárez²

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Climate models predict that such a growing tendency could not only continue but also influence other climate variables, such as frost and rainfall (IPCC, 2013). The close relationship between climate and agriculture makes agriculture particularly sensitive to the potential impacts of climate change (Moriondo et al, 2010;Iglesias et al, 2012). Climate change may lead to modifications in cropping patterns, crop water requirements and, among others, the seasonal distribution of water demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation of irrigation networks to climate change: Linking robust design and stakeholder contribution

Granados

Martín-Carrasco

Jalón

et al. 2015

Span. j. agric. res.

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Agriculture is a particularly sensitive sector to the potential impacts of climate change. Thus, irrigation infrastructure is required to be robust to cope with these potential threats. The objective of this research is designing more robust irrigation networks, considering cost and stakeholder contribution. To that end, the investigation was addressed in three phases: a sensitivity analysis to understand the effectiveness of the distinct variables, a cost-effectiveness analysis assessing their efficiency, and a global study of the most efficient variables to provide an insight into their function. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the networks oversized by means of the coefficient of utilisation or the factor of safety, behave better than those oversized via the continuous specific discharge; moreover, the degree of freedom has been shown ineffective. The cost-effectiveness analysis shows that the coefficient of utilisation and the factor of safety are the most efficient variables, as they introduced safety margin oversizing fewer network elements and to a lesser extent than the continuous specific discharge. It also shows that stakeholder contribution, conveyed as a reduction of the degree of freedom, plays an important role in the network's adaptive capacity to change. The global study of these variables reveals the subtlety of the coefficient of utilisation, which is the variable that better reproduces the farmer behaviour during demand increase scenarios. In conclusion, the results identify the coefficient of utilisation as the variable which provides the safest margins and reveal the importance of stakeholder contribution in absorb the demand increase in a better manner.Additional key words: Clément's First Formula; coefficient of utilisation; degree of freedom; demand increase; discharge determination; factor of safety; stakeholder contribution.Abbreviations used: DF (degree of freedom); FC (farmer collaboration); k (factor of safety); OQ (operation quality); q (continuous specific discharge); r (coefficient of utilisation of the network); U (standard normal variable).Citation: Granados, A.; Martín-Carrasco, F. J.; García de Jalón, S.; Iglesias, A. (2015). Adaptation of irrigation networks to climate change: Linking robust design and stakeholder contribution.

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in Southern Portugal

et al. 2016

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Climate change projections point to increasing air temperature and reduced precipitation in southern Portugal, which would affect farming systems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in southern Portugal. These impacts were assessed by combining climate model data with a soil water balance model and a numerical model for the design of irrigation systems. Meteorological data from two weather stations were used along with three climate models (HadRM3P, HIRHAMh and HIRHAMhh; 2071-2100). The crop rotations studied included sugar beet-maize-tomatowheat and sunflower-wheat-barley. Two adaptation measures were considered: (i) maintaining the current crop varieties; (ii) using new crop varieties. The results from the considered climate change scenarios indicated that the impacts of climate change on irrigation requirements depend on the adopted adaptation measures. On average, the seasonal irrigation requirements increased by 13-70% when new crop varieties were used and by À13 to 7% when the current crop varieties were maintained. The impacts of climate change on irrigation system design were considerable, with the design flow rate increasing by 5-24%. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Key words: Climate change; Crop irrigation requirements; Irrigation; Irrigation systems; Models; Soil water balance RÉSUMÉ Les prévisions de changement climatique indiquent un accroissement de la température de l'air et une diminution de la précip-itation dans le Sud du Portugal, ce qui affecterait les systèmes de production agricole. Cette étude a pour but d'évaluer les impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture irriguée dans le Sud du Portugal. Ces impacts ont été évalués en combinant les données de modèles climatiques avec un modèle de bilan hydrique du sol et un modèle numérique pour la conception des systèmes d'irrigation. Les données de deux stations météorologiques ont été utilisées avec trois modèles climatiques (HadRM3P, HIRHAMh et HIRHAMhh; 2071-2100). Les assolements étudiés comprenaient: betterave sucrière-maïs-tomate-blé et tournesol-blé-orge. Deux mesures d'adaptation ont été considérées: (i) en conservant les variétés cultivées actuellement et (ii) en utilisant de nouvelles variétés. Les résultats obtenus à partir des scénarios de changement climatique considérés indiquent que les impacts du changement climatique sur les besoins en irrigation dépendent des mesures d'adaptation choisies. En moyenne, les besoins saisonniers en irrigation augmentent de 13 à 70% quand les nouvelles variétés sont utilisées, et de À13 à 7% quand les variétés actuelles sont maintenues. Les impacts du changement climatique sur la conception des systèmes d'irrigation sont considérables avec une augmentation du débit de projet de 5 à 24%.

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A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

Cited by 138 publications

References 46 publications

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Adaptation of irrigation networks to climate change: Linking robust design and stakeholder contribution

The Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in Southern Portugal

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