A Reduced Proteomic Signature in Critically Ill Covid-19 Patients Determined With Plasma Antibody Micro-array and Machine Learning

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is a complex, multi-system disease with varying severity and symptoms. Identifying changes in critically ill COVID-19 patients’ proteomes enables a better understanding of markers associated with susceptibility, symptoms, and treatment. We performed plasma antibody microarray and machine learning analyses to identify novel biomarkers of COVID-19. Methods: A case-control study comparing the concentration of 2000 plasma proteins in age- and sex-matched COVID-19 inpatients, non-COVID-19 sepsis controls, and healthy control subjects. Machine learning was used to identify a unique proteome signature in COVID-19 patients. Protein expression was correlated with clinically relevant variables and analyzed for temporal changes over hospitalization days 1, 3, 7, and 10. Expert-curated protein expression information was analyzed with Natural language processing (NLP) to determine organ- and cell-specific expression. Results: Machine learning identified a 28-protein model that accurately differentiated COVID-19 patients from the other cohorts (balanced accuracy=0.95, AUC=1.00, F1=0.93), as well as an optimal nine-protein model (PF4V1, NUCB1, CrkL, SerpinD1, Fen1, GATA-4, ProSAAS, PARK7, and NET1) that maintained high classification ability (balanced accuracy=0.92, AUC=0.98, F1=0.93). Specific proteins correlated with hemoglobin, coagulation factors, hypertension, and high-flow nasal cannula intervention (P<0.01). Time-course analysis of the 28 leading proteins demonstrated no significant temporal changes within the COVID-19 cohort. NLP analysis identified multi-system expression of the key proteins, with the digestive and nervous systems being the leading systems. Conclusions: The plasma proteome of critically ill COVID-19 patients was distinguishable from that of non-COVID-19 sepsis controls and healthy control subjects. The leading 28 proteins and their subset of 9 proteins yielded accurate classification models and are expressed in multiple organ systems. The identified COVID-19 proteomic signature helps elucidate COVID-19 pathophysiology and may guide future COVID-19 treatment development.