A Re-Look at Recent Statistics on Mortality in the Context of HIV/AIDS with Particular Reference to South Africa

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the HIV epidemic in the 1980s, various organisations and researchers have produced statistics on HIV/AIDS including HIV prevalence, incidence, number of AIDS cases, AIDS-related mortality as well as life expectancy at birth in the context of HIV/AIDS. Until recently HIV-prevalence statistics as well as models projecting the impact of HIV/AIDS utilised HIV-prevalence statistics based on women attending antenatal clinics as population-based prevalence statistics were non-existent. Among others, the extrapolation of HIV-prevalence statistics from surveillance sites to the general population has been questioned. Recent statistics on HIV-prevalence from population-based surveys strongly suggest that HIV-prevalence in many countries may not be as high as earlier estimated and projected. In addition, model estimates of HIV/AIDS-prevalence and impact on mortality often use conventional model life tables such as the Coale-Demeny Regional, UN, and Brass standard life tables, which in the case of South Africa give female life expectancy at birth plummeting from about 65 years in the mid-1990s to around 49-50 years in 2005. The standard life tables often employed in these estimates do not take account of the 'hump' in the mortality curve due to AIDS-related deaths as these standard mortality schedules were developed prior to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Given this background, this paper provides a critical look at recent statistics on infant mortality rates and life expectancies at birth in the context of HIV/AIDS in parts of Southern and Eastern Africa with particular reference to South Africa.

Small Area Population Estimation: Estimating Population Size at Ward Level 2014 in South Africa

“…For selected time periods, two sets of independent one-parameter logit life table for children and adult were constructed and then spliced together to produce an estimate of a general level of mortality and hence defining a two-parameter logit life table for the general population. The splicing procedure is described in Udjo (2008). The Brass (1971) two-parameter logit life tables from which life expectancies at birth were computed were defined as…”

Magnitudes and trends in orphanhood amongyounger persons in the era of HIV/AIDS inSouth Africa, 2001-2015

“…A number of studies have revised their previous estimates of life expectancy at birth in South Africa slightly upward, (see Vass 2003;Metropolitan Holdings). Contrary to previous estimates, a recent study (Udjo 2008) suggests a life expectancy at birth of 56.4 years in South Africa in 2006. However, in view of the diversity of the estimates of the magnitude of AIDS orphans, further studies are required to better inform policy.…”

Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa using 2001—2009 census data: does estimation method matter?

“…This tends to result in an upward bias of the estimated survivorship of parents. Also, the “absentee effect” (the prolonged absence of fathers), in South Africa, for example, could lead to upward biases in paternal orphanhood mortality estimates (Udjo et al 2005 ). In addition, there is a tendency for women to understate their ages and for men to overstate their ages which, to some extent, biases mortality estimates.…”