A rapid NPP meta-model for current and future climate and CO2 scenarios in Europe

Sallaba, Florian; Lehsten, Dörte; Seaquist, Jonathan; Sykes, Martin T.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.01.026

Cited by 20 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(100 reference statements)

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“…As in Sallaba et al (2015), we assume that vegetation growth is controlled synergistically by temperature and precipitation. Under optimal climate conditions maximum plant growth can be reached but decreases when temperature and/or precipitation are not at the optimum.…”

Section: A13 Biome Meta-modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Model overestimation in comparison to in situ NPP measurements is indicated by Q > 1 and underestimation by Q < 1. Good model performance is classified with a Q range between 0.9 and 1.1, assuming an error of ±10 % following Sallaba et al (2015). However, we further defined an acceptable model performance error range of ±20 % (i.e.…”

Section: A21 Biome-level Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We set maximum changes for each variable (see Table A1) in order to design reasonable climate and [CO 2 ] scenario limits as described by Sallaba et al (2015). We used CRU TS 3.0 climate data as the baseline time series and superimposed the climate and [CO 2 ] scenarios upon the baseline data while we held the nitrogen deposition rates according to the ACCMIP records.…”

Section: A12 Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to keep the meta-modelling framework as simple but efficient as possible, we limited the meta-model to three input climate surrogates that control plant growth: (1) annual precipitation (P cum ), (2) maximum temperature (T max ), and (3) minimum temperature (T min ) temperature. We followed the methodology of Sallaba et al (2015) by defining the functions of the climate surrogates that yield maximum NPP at baseline [CO 2 ] and combining these in a synergistic function and then adding the CO 2 fertilization effect.…”

Section: A13 Biome Meta-modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

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Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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Section: A13 Biome Meta-modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A21 Biome-level Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A12 Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A13 Biome Meta-modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

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“…LPJ-GUESS has been successfully applied on global (Parazoo et al 2014;Steinkamp and Hickler 2015;Knorr et al 2016;Smith et al 2016), European (Sallaba et al 2015;Wu et al 2015;Blanke et al 2016), regional (Manusch et al 2014;Seiler et al 2014;Guoping Tang et al 2014), and even local scale (De Kauwe et al 2014;Ekici et al 2015;Vermeulen et al 2015). Applications include carbon budget quantification (Morales et al 2007;Le Quéré et al 2013;Engström et al 2016) as well as predictions of vegetation distribution Zhang et al 2013;Baudena et al 2015) and agricultural production Olin et al 2015;Pirttioja et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing correlative and process-based modelling approaches in a boreal forest identifies important areas for model development

Schibalski¹,

Lehtonen²,

Hickler³

et al. 2017

Silva Fenn.

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Schibalski A., Lehtonen A., Hickler T., Schröder B. (2017). Identifying important topics for model refinement in a widely used process-based model informed by correlative model analyses in a boreal forest. Silva Fennica vol. 51 no. 4 article id 6977. 24 p. https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.6977 Highlights• Continental-scale model parameterization of widely used LPJ-GUESS experiences problems when applied on the regional level.• Competition, disturbances and soil conditions are crucial for explaining treeline position in Finland, besides climatic limitation.• Picea abies is overly dominant in LPJ-GUESS model, as key competitive mechanisms are not implemented in sufficient detail. AbstractModels attempting to predict treeline shifts in changing climates must include the relevant ecological processes in sufficient detail. A previous correlative model study has pointed to nutrients, competition, and temperature as the most important factors shaping the treelines of Pinus sylvestris L., Picea abies (L.) H. Karst. and Betula pubescens Ehrh. in Finnish Lapland. Here, we applied a widely used process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to (i) test its capability to simulate observed spatial and temporal patterns of the main tree species in Finnish Lapland, and (ii) to explore the model representation of important processes in order to guide further model development. A European parameterization of LPJ-GUESS overestimated especially P. abies biomass and the species' northern range limit. We identified implemented processes to adjust (competition, disturbance) and crucial processes in boreal forests to include (nutrient limitation, forest management) which account for the model's failure to (edaphically) restrict P. abies in Finnish Lapland and the resulting species imbalance. Key competitive mechanisms are shade and drought tolerance, nutrient limitation, fire resistance, and susceptibility to disturbances (storm, herbivory) which we discussed with respect to boreal ecology and promising model developments to provide a starting point for future model development.

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Processes in SoilGen

Finke

2024

Modelling Soil Development Under Global Change

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A rapid NPP meta-model for current and future climate and CO2 scenarios in Europe

Cited by 20 publications

References 45 publications

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Comparing correlative and process-based modelling approaches in a boreal forest identifies important areas for model development

Processes in SoilGen

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