A Random Forest Model for the Prediction of FOG Content in Inlet Wastewater from Urban WWTPs

Abstract

The content of fats, oils, and greases (FOG) in wastewater, as a result of food preparation, both in homes and in different commercial and industrial activities, is a growing problem. In addition to the blockages generated in the sanitary networks, it also represents a difficulty for the performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), increasing energy and maintenance costs and worsening the performance of downstream treatment processes. The pretreatment stage of these facilities is responsible for removing most of the FOG to avoid these problems. However, so far, optimization has been limited to the correct design and initial installation dimensioning. Proper management of this initial stage is left to the experience of the operators to adjust the process when changes occur in the characteristics of the wastewater inlet. The main difficulty is the large number of factors influencing these changes. In this work, a prediction model of the FOG content in the inlet water is presented. The model is capable of correctly predicting 98.45% of the cases in training and 72.73% in testing, with a relative error of 10%. It was developed using random forest (RF) and the good results obtained (R2 = 0.9348 and RMSE = 0.089 in test) will make it possible to improve operations in this initial stage. The good features of this machine learning algorithm had not been used, so far, in the modeling of pretreatment parameters. This novel approach will result in a global improvement in the performance of this type of facility allowing early adoption of adjustments to the pretreatment process to remove the maximum amount of FOG.

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